NBU predicts inflation slowdown and a massive decline in the yield on 2019
The national Bank decided not to change the forecast of inflation, hoping that by the end of the year, the price increase will umelitsy up to 6.3%. And in the beginning of 2020, in the end, will be included in the target corridor of the regulator – civil servants is not the first year trying to drive the ratio in the range of 4-6%. Such rating Agency announced on 7 February.
The NBU admit that the rivalry with rising prices and depreciation of the hryvnia will turn the slowdown in the economy. This year in the best case, GDP will increase by 2.5%. Largely because of the strict monetary policy of the national Bank, from October 2017, six times to raise the discount rate until the present 18%. This has led to an increase in interest rates and curb lending to the real sector.
Curiously, the fact that its own inflation report for the month of 2019, explaining more substantial than expected inflation in the past year, the NBU referring to several reasons. Which, on the one hand, had a significant impact on increasing prices, and the other – no way I can adjusted this tight monetary policy.
For example, the NBU once again complained about the increase in utility tariffs, wages of citizens, and also the price of travel in public transport. And he remembered the pleasant: the fuel in the end of the past year rapidly depreciated following oil quotations, amelias and increase the global cost of food.
Also, the NBU noticed that the final factor will give a retaining effect on the stagnation of the economy in the current year. The problem is that for a large number of goods previously, Ukraine has caught up with the world leaders. Due to the intensive formation of the export of our agricultural products, domestic prices on par with global. And to a large extent increase will not be.
What can not be said about the increase in utility tariffs. The national Bank shook up its forecast and believes that this year, the communal will add 13.6 per cent, instead of before the expected 11.7 percent. The reason is simple – because of the delays with the adoption of new tariffs for heat, converted according to the newest price of natural gas for the residents bills began to arrive people only in 2019.
As to the development of the economy, the monitoring of the NBU is even less optimistic. The rate of increase in GDP to decline from 3.3% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. NBU calls a number of reasons, primarily large accounting rate of the national Bank. Significant decrease this year to expect does not need to ease monetary policy, no one will. In addition, civil servants are waiting to reduce productivity of the main crops. Virtually no difficult calculations according to this issue, they did not produce. Simply doubted that farmers will be able to replicate last year’s achievements.
Improvements in the economy, state officials expect only through time. Give a forecast that in 2020, GDP will increase by 2.9%, and in 2021-m is 3.7%.