The crisis may bury unprofitable Bank, experts say.
A new crisis may lead to “Alfa-Bank disaster. As of 2018, the Bank showed a net loss, and the arrears amounted to 118 billion rubles. Experts predict the deterioration of the situation “Alfa-Bank” in the current crisis situation, even bankruptcy due to the enormous amount of unsecured consumer loans.
Analysts of the rating Agency Fitch believe the long-term policy of lending to Bank failure in the crisis and noted that about 90% of the retail portfolio of the Bank is unsecured loans to citizens. In other words, the Bank moved to credit individuals and narazdavali too many credits that can “haunt” during the collapse of the ruble and the rapid spread of the coronavirus.
The deteriorating economic situation will hurt the incomes of Russians and people just will not be able to repay the loans leaving the “Alfa-Bank” a huge debt. Analysts at Fitch also said that the influx of new customers is limited to low incomes, so the debt burden on existing borrowers increases significantly. At the end of 2019 experts noted the deterioration in credit quality and the trend towards delinquency.
The Bank plans to increase retail portfolio mortgage lending also will not come true. The boom in mortgages will continue to increase in the Central Bank of Russia key rate, then the market expects a significant decline. Most people don’t have time to take a mortgage at the old interest rate and will postpone the transaction until better times.
A similar situation banks faced during the crisis in 2014, when the market was overheated consumer loans. But despite the enlightening experience of “Alfa-Bank” continued to give loans to the population and can now go to the bottom.