Currency market participants are accustomed to the flexible exchange rate regime, and do not panic during moderate exchange rate fluctuations.
“The currency changed deliberately trying to destabilize the hryvnia exchange rate for “squad Ana”, that is incitement of the population to buy foreign currency at the peak of devaluation no longer works as before. Currency market participants are accustomed to the flexible exchange rate regime, and do not panic during moderate fluctuations in the exchange rate,” wrote Lepeshinski.
The national Bank noted that seasonality is a temporary phenomenon that will gradually disappear due to habituation of the population and business to flexible exchange rate and gradual removal of the regulator for all administrative restrictions on the currency market.
In the absence of significant seasonal short-term forecasting of the exchange rate becomes less obvious task.
“When you reduce panic component the behavior of firms and households, the more effective becomes the main monetary tool of the NBU discount rate. The logic of monetary policy inflation targeting: high inflation risks – higher interest rates, creates a purely economic incentives for savings in the national currency and, as a consequence, curb the growth of prices. The current situation is very contrasted with previous experiences of fixed exchange rate in Ukraine, which stimulated the accumulation of imbalances in the economy that were removed during the next crisis because of a significant devaluation,” – wrote the Deputy Director of the Department of monetary policy and economic analysis.
The official exchange rate of hryvnia to the dollar for the 2018 calendar year increased by 1.3% from 28.06 hryvnia 1 January 2018 to 27,69 hryvnia 1 January 2019.
The highest rate of hryvnia to the dollar in 2018, was recorded March 14, or 25.91 hryvnia. The lowest of 28.87 hryvnia on January 23.
The situation on the market of domestic bonds Treasury bonds beginning in 2018, when the resident is actively buying the country’s debt, is repeated in the beginning of 2019.
Due to the non-resident interest of hryvnia bonds has increased the supply of currency in the interbank market, which led to the strengthening of the hryvnia.
Net international reserves of the NBU as of January is 9,644 billion.