On Tuesday China said that for the first time since the start of the pandemic in the country has not been a single death related to the coronavirus. But as transfers bi-Bi-si, there are questions about the veracity of the statistics. Can be trusted as China presents a picture of what is happening?
For several months early in the morning, the Chinese authorities present to the world the latest data on the spread of the virus. On April 8, there were 81820 infections, 3333 people died.
To the countries that were the focus of the spread of coronavirus, has made a lot of flattering words about the measures it introduced to combat the infection. The Director General of the world health organization (who), Tedros Adan Ghebreyesus praised China for the speed in identifying the outbreak and the desire to give all the information about what is happening.
But despite these positive responses, many in the world questioned the veracity of official Chinese statistics and in General the approval of Beijing on success in the fight against the disease.
Last week one of the members of the British government, Michael Gove has told bi-Bi-si, that “some details of China did not give a clear picture on the extent, nature and degree of contagiousness of the virus.”
The President of the United States Donald trump also said that the official data on the number of deaths and infected are too low. Some us lawmakers directly accused China of concealing the true state of Affairs regarding the number of infected and dead.
The spread of infections in the world steadily rising, and in the U.S., these figures have already exceeded official Chinese data. Some countries are trying to emulate the Chinese experience to understand how to smooth out the curve.
But there is growing concern that China is not completely honest in regard to the true number of infected and the dead. Partly these doubts are connected with the past of China, but also with the lack of clarity that inevitably undermines trust.
China has a bad reputation in regard to the publication of data, trustworthy.
This is partly related to the economic indicators by which to judge the success of the country and the ruling Communist party of China. Unlike the majority of countries, quarterly data on the GDP of China has long been regarded as a guideline, and not an accurate representation of the state of the economy.
Before the start of the pandemic coronavirus authorities expected that 2020, China’s GDP will grow by 6%. For many years the country reported on the achievement of the goal, almost without errors.
But economists around the world not taking this seriously. Any economy cannot provide figures with such a suspiciously constant.
The position of the Communist party largely depends on the tasks and the reality of the forecasts. In case of failure, the true state of Affairs hidden. In some regions of China the leaders were publicly executed for cheating on GDP.
According to some rough estimates, real economic growth of China in fact is only about half the official voiced data.
In the past, independent experts studied the regional production indicators electricity in China and also came to the conclusion that the country’s GDP is actually below the state statistics.
If China is constantly accused of faking such an important indicator as GDP, would be reasonable to assume that the government behaves the same way towards Covid-19 – issue no less serious.
Concealment of data at an early stage
The Secretary of the party Committee of Hubei province In Yun urged local authorities to prevent the concealment of information about the virus.
It is known that the disease began to spread from Wuhan no later than December 2019. But it is no secret that China initially concealed the existence of the problem, its scope and the danger Covid-19.
The mayor of Wuhan has long been acknowledged that since the beginning of January, when it was confirmed the first 100 cases, to 23 January, when the city was introduced quarantine measures, the authorities have not done enough.
China reported to the who on mers on December 31. But we also know that almost simultaneously with this, the police visited the home of Lee Varlena doctor who tried to warn their colleagues about the outbreak of the virus, reminiscent of Sars.
If Varlena and other physicians, who scored the alarm was silenced. The doctor then himself died from Covid-19.
A few weeks ago, about that time, when the Wuhan for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic came the country’s leader, XI Jinping, in China outside of Hubei province ceased to appear new infections.
Lecturer school of public health at the University of Hong Kong, Professor Ben Cowling said that given the survey results accurately reflect the data reporting of the local authorities.
But, according to opponents, the key word in this case “reports”.
Simultaneously with the visit of XI Jinping, the Japanese news Agency Kyodo News reported on the statements of a certain unnamed doctor from Wuhan. He said that he and his colleagues had received instructions from his superiors not to include new cases in the official statistics.
In the U.S. government and does not have to mince words. As recently reported by Bloomberg, in an official intelligence report for the President’s office said that the data issued by China, was “obviously incomplete”, and the number of cases simply “fabricated”.
But why keep this epidemic? The reasons could be various: to hide from the public a new crisis in the health system; to prevent panic or, perhaps in the hope that the epidemic will subside and its true extent will never be found.
Who to write to infected?
But even if we assume that official Chinese figures for the actual coronavirus, the General approach of the Beijing statistics always in doubt.
From January to early March the State Committee of health of China has issued seven different options for the definition Covid-19.
As told by Professor Cowling, was originally investigated only cases of acute pneumonia in humans, one way or another connected with the market of wild animals in Wuhan. He is believed to be the outbreak started.
According to the Professor, if from the beginning to the recognition of the disease was applied the same criteria, it would be was about 232 thousand confirmed cases. And it is three times higher than reported officially.
“We believe that the degree of underestimation was higher in the initial stage of the outbreak of coronavirus,” says the Professor. In addition, there are cases when the disease is without symptoms, but people remain carriers of the infection.
Until last week China did not include these cases in the total number infected, even after they have been identified and laboratory confirmed.
As pointed out by Professor Cowling, according to the outbreak that occurred aboard the cruise ship “diamond Princess”, which became quarantined off the coast of Japan, asymptomatic cases among those infected can be about 20%.
President XI and his circle of confidants has already started working to improve the image of China.
Last week the second man in the Chinese system of government, the Prime Minister Li Keqiang, said that “all districts and region must insist on open and transparent access to information”.
Dr. Lee and other doctors who first sounded the alarm and then died from a disease declared national heroes – although they were punished.
A few weeks later after the introduction of quarantine measures in Wuhan, China’s state media reported that the leader of the country allegedly personally participated in the meetings of the coronavirus in the first week of January, but then nothing about this was reported.
Chinese authorities have sent medical equipment and its specialists in really in need of help countries – in Italy, for example, and in those deemed to be poorer, including in Serbia.
The Chinese leadership argues that the first stage of clinical trials on humans for possible vaccines – just a few weeks.
Regardless of whether you can trust official Chinese data on coronavirus, it is clear that the most severe phase of the current epidemic to China is over. This country began the spread of the disease, and now she wants to appear before the world as unable to end Covid-19. underestimation of China data on coronavirus
And also: because of the thousands of urns containing the ashes arises the question of the real deaths from the coronavirus in China