With the advent of a global pandemic COVID-19 life around the world froze in anticipation of victory over the virus and completion of the quarantine. And it would be quite logical to assume that the same should subside and war. “Apostrophe” tried to figure out whether the coronavirus has a chance to become “peace enforcement” or thirsty people people to war will not stop even epidemic.
Coronavirus a global truce – an empty dream or reality?
The world was too calm and safe until the global pandemic of mers. But with the beginning of viral distress, put on the head of life even in the most developed States of the world war, it would seem, was to depart on the second plan. The main was supposed to be a struggle with the insidious coronavirus. At least these are the ideas expressed in his address, UN Secretary-General, antónio Guterres, when called upon immediately everywhere to stop fighting and begin to combat the spread of coronavirus. “The raging virus – a visual madness of war. That’s why I call for the immediate global cease-fire in all parts of the world,” said the Secretary General in his video.
However, the calls of the UN Secretary-General sounded in the void. If you filter the news feed from messages with the infamous word “coronavirus” (which in today’s information madness to do not too easy), it becomes obvious that any international conflicts on the political and diplomatic level, no hot armed conflict have not gone away. Moreover, for a number of confrontations coronavirus even opens up new possibilities. “For guerrilla fighters and extremist groups coronavirus pandemic is a clear finding. After all, when the “mighty” expire, it allows “weaker” to implement their plans,” said Bertrand Badie, an expert on international relations at the French Institute of political studies, commenting on the escalation of fighting by rebel groups in Mali.
A global pandemic creates opportunities not only for the various insurgent and guerrilla movements. Regular violators of international order is also not completely away under the guise of advancing their sinister strategic plans. In particular, North Korea, taking advantage of the situation when her South, “relative”, Japan and the United States banal to Pyongyang stepped up programme of testing of heavy ballistic missiles. That does not brings reconciliation on the Peninsula.
A good example of a coronavirus that is not a reason to bury the hatchet and amicably confront the pandemic, is the middle East.
As the coronavirus tried to reconcile the middle East
At first glance, with the advent of coronavirus in the middle East has really become a bit calmer. In Northern Syria, actively fighting stopped before the epidemic in Yemen warring parties signed the “truce coronavirus”, and Iran is the main “conductor” of the middle East conflict and sponsor of Shia movements across the region, received a great blow from the coronavirus that it is not to geopolitical games. Also closed for quarantine, and the main opponents of Iran – Israel and the United States. But a more detailed analysis revealed that this improvement of the situation – only symptomatic pause, and no system stabilization in the region and does not smell.
Iranian rescuers prepare to disinfect the street
In Yemen “coronavirus truce” lasted less than a day – and the parties returned to armed confrontation. In Syria, despite the cessation of large-scale hostilities – and not because of the coronavirus, and as a result achieved between the Turkey and Russia agreements – continued attacks, and in the near future it is expected new military operation of Turkey.
“It cannot be excluded that in the near future Ankara might launch a military operation in Idlib province to neutralize radical anti-government groups that currently impede the implementation of the Moscow agreements. But if Turkey refuses to do this, we can expect a resumption of military operations, as it was in January of February of this year”, – said the “Apostrophe” expert on international policy and the Middle East of the Ukrainian Institute of the future Iliya Kusa.
Iran, although a really few have reduced their activity in the region, did not so much due to shock coronavirus, as the implementation of the strategy of delegating its functions to regional allies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, a local militant group in Iraq and the Damascus government in Syria. The impetus for this strategy was also not done due to coronavirus, and was the result of the elimination of General Soleimani, who in the beginning of the year put Iran and the United States to the brink of war. And the threat of an outbreak of a new round of confrontation between Washington and Tehran with the arrival of the coronavirus pandemic will not go away. “The administration trump took a course on strengthening pressure on Iran and the use situation caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus in the country for a further loosening of the regime. So I do not expect any relief in “the Iran issue” in the near future”, – says Iliya Kusa.
As you can see, examples and arguments that the coronavirus at best only postpones for a time the acute problem, and at worst, actually creates space for the spread of the conflict, is sufficient. But for Ukraine do not have to plunge into the depths of middle Eastern politics in order to come to a similar conclusion. Is enough view of the Ukrainian-Russian confrontation in the Donbass, which, despite the pandemic and attempts at a peaceful settlement, and did not think to fade.
Coronavirus front in the war in the Donbass
Coronavirus has become an extremely serious challenge for Ukraine and for Russia (the true extent of the epidemic COVID-19 in Russia read in the material “Apostrophes”). He had already entered the Russian-occupied territory. And it is clear that without his influence the forecast of development of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict possible.
“Coronavirus pandemic has created a crisis for Russia and the occupied territories and for Ukraine”, – said “Apostrophe” Director of the joint coordination center “Donbas” Oleg Saakyan.
Spring in the Donbas
Thus at best influence in the fashion industry, practically not affected. Since the announcement of the quarantine have been more than 150 attacks on Ukrainian positions, there are numerous wounded and dead. In fact, the course of the military conflict of recent years has not undergone any changes. And there is every reason to believe that the political paradigm would not change. After all, the main aims and methods of Russia, which is the only responsible for starting the war, remain unchanged. “Regardless of what events influenced the pandemic will take place in Russia, the question of Ukraine for her to be the last in the priorities. There is every indication that Russia does not lose interest in Ukraine and is actively pushing its plan for “reconciliation” – said in a conversation with “Apostrophe” co-Director of foreign policy and security programmes of the Razumkov Centre Oleksiy Melnyk.
However, the activity of the Kremlin on the Ukrainian political front, now some sleep – they try to solve problems with the coronavirus itself. According to “Apostrophe” informed sources, due to the coronavirus, and the insane drop in oil prices the Russian sponsors temporarily abandoned financing a “fifth column” in Ukraine. “Now collapses a number of projects, which are anyway focused on Russia. In particular, problems with money feel “the Opposition platform For life”, which has already started campaigning at the local elections, but is now forced to reduce sharply the activity”, – told our publication people from political circles.
However, there is a risk that the Kremlin, according to his old habit, in case you cannot solve internal problems (and given the extremely weak medicine in Russia, this scenario is quite likely) will attempt to distract the attention of another armed escalation. “The deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Russia may cause a proportional increase in the intensity of hostilities in the Donbas, with the aim to divert attention and to mobilize the society against “external threats,” – says Oleg Saakyan.