The first Minister of Scotland Nicola Stargen stated the need to hold a second referendum on independence of Scotland by 2021. Analyzing the situation in Britain, “Apostrophe” has learned that a very real consequence of Brexit may be the disintegration of the United Kingdom.
The Scots want to remain in the EU
The issue of Scottish independence, seemed to be permanently closed after the failed referendum in 2014, but the Scots there was quite a strong argument for holding a second referendum. Like, if we knew that the UK will leave EU Brexit as a result, in 2014 would have voted differently.
“In Scotland was the referendum, but it failed, and independence was supported by 43%. Why so few? Because everyone was counting on the fact that there will be a change in the balance of power in favour of Scotland when Britain is in the European Union. So I decided – what’s the difference, to remain part of the United Kingdom or leave, if we still in the EU? In the UK or outside it – they move freely around Europe and feel fine. This is almost like independence within the European Union. Now they (the Scots and the English “Apostrophe”) will return to its geopolitical position in the situation of 1992. Britain needs to survive the challenges of internal unity of the country, and this is a huge task. The process of exit from the EU could accelerate the process of disintegration of the UK, as the fault line has already emerged”, – said the “Apostrophe” in conflict management and international Affairs, Director foreign policy research Institute Grygoriy Perepelytsia.
Recall that almost two-thirds of Scots – 62% – voted against leaving the EU in a referendum in 2016 on which citizens of the UK decide the issue of withdrawal from the EU. It is the membership in the EU is now associated with the question of Scottish independence “independence supporters”. However, they are not alone. After Brexit, which can’t happen, threatens Britain’s huge shaft problems: after the Scots already lined up a whole queue of candidates “exit” from the United Kingdom.
Against the unity of the Kingdom
“Brexit, in fact, it is not a crisis for the EU – rather it is a crisis for the political and constitutional system of the United Kingdom, which entails the disintegration of the Union of four Nations – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland,” said the conversation with “Apostrophe” Paul Kjær, University of Copenhagen Business School.
In Northern Ireland the reasons to leave the United Kingdom in the event of Brexit almost more than the Scots. This region is most dependent on EU membership, it is only because he was able to establish a stable and close relationship with the rest of Ireland and to end the bloody conflict between the IRA and the Protestant radicals. No less important for Belfast – once the industrial centre of shipbuilding, and now deeply subsidized region is and the funding of regional development programmes of the EU. Not coincidentally, the Northern Ireland problem has become a key topic of the negotiations in London and Brussels on the agreement on Brexit. In the case of hard output of Britain from the EU nationalists will be fully able to implement the scenario out of the United Kingdom and unification with Ireland.
Does not remain aside “separatist” processes in Britain and Wales. At the recent Congress of the leading Welsh party Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price said that the referendum on independence for Wales would be held until 2030. By the standards of a quiet and peaceful Welsh is a pretty radical position.
Threats to the integrity of the UK are not only of the Borderlands, but also because of the advances of the London political elite with English nationalism. “Polls have repeatedly shown how much the British conservatives prefer Brexit support Scotland and Northern Ireland. This prevents the update of the principles of unity of the Kingdom, which was announced by Boris Johnson and Jeremy hunt, competing for the post of leader of the party. Johnson especially is bad to Scottish political activists of all shades, based on its inherent disregard for their interests and political stakes in the domestic regions of England. Despite his obligations to protect the principles of fair Union, the most likely is the rise of English nationalism, because of the need for conservatives to compete with Brexit party Nigel Faraj,” said political expert edition of The Irish Times Paul Gillespie.
Concern is not only the ideological manoeuvres of the conservatives, but the positions of their major rivals – the labour party. Their leader Jeremy Corbyn has long professed the principle of “Baba with a cart – the Mare is easier”, and he is not against the holding of the Scottish referendum is already in 2021 and uniting Northern Ireland with the Irish Republic.
The disintegration or “federalization”?
Thus, the electrification of the relations between the Central government and the national minorities the UK the Brexit puts the United Kingdom in a predicament similar to that which emerged in the 90s, in a period of deep crisis of national identity in Britain. Incidentally, it was then laid mechanisms that created a statutory mechanism out of the United Kingdom through a referendum. But any action of the Scots, the Welsh and the Irish still have to give consent to the London Parliament, which Parliament is primarily English. And largely from his decisions and actions will depend, will be a breakup of the United Kingdom and whether it will be peaceful.
In addition, the crucial role is played by economic factors. So Scotland, for access to oil and gas fields of the North sea and the presence of a developed economic centre in Glasgow has all the chances for the establishment of an independent economy, especially in the case of integration with the EU. Northern Ireland is closely linked to the economic, cultural and family ties with the Irish Republic, which is due to the EU membership from a backward and poor country turned into quite a successful European state. But before Wales, deeply subsidized “by the British Donbas” is a severe financial dilemma. While London Welsh annually receive up to 20 billion pounds in subsidies, while funding opportunities from the EU they assess a maximum of 2 billion pounds.
What future awaits a divided British Isles? Oddly enough, the consequence of the withdrawal of Britain as a single state of the EU could only come from a closer integration with the European Union, but already in the status of sovereign States. “Brexit built on the idea of a return to the past (Imperial), which no longer exists. It occurred due to wrong understanding of the place of Britain in the world and its power. I’m guessing that in 20 years Britain will be even more integrated into the EU than it is now, ” – says Paul Kjær.
Also a likely result of the aspirations of the Scots, Irish and Welsh can be not the disintegration of the UK is fully independent of the state, the constitutional transformation of the United Kingdom in the spirit of federalization. This opinion is shared by Vernon Bogdanor, Professor at king’s College London and author of the book “After Brexit: towards a British Constitution.” “In its report on Brexit, the Committee of the house of lords stated that the EU “was actually the glue that holds the Kingdom together since 1997″. This glue is now disappearing. Membership in the EU has replaced the us Constitution codified by treaties that limit both the government and the Parliament. Because of Brexit Britain would return again a situation in which our rights as citizens and the relationship between the various parts of the United Kingdom will be given at the discretion of the sovereign Parliament, which, with the exception of those cases where there is opposition, the government is under the control of the Executive. So why not Brexit could push Britain to follow other democracies, taking the Constitution? Why Brexit’not be the beginning of our Constitution?”, – said Vernon Bogdanor.