In Ukraine, just over a month the exchange rate of hryvnia has appreciated by 71 kopecks./ Favorable for the national currency, the situation will continue, analysts say. Already by 10 may, one dollar may be worth 26,4 UAH/$.
In early April, a dollar was sold at 27,2-27,3 UAH/$. Before the elections, the devaluation expectations have been strengthened. They say, in a situation of instability, the risk of a change in fiscal course, the demand for dollars will only grow. Despite this, over the past month, the hryvnia has shown stable and steady growth.
Thus, according to NBU data, the reference us dollar exchange rate as of may 6 was 26.5 UAH/$. The situation on the currency market also commented on the national Bank. They say: everything is explained by the situation on the market – supply exceeds demand.
In April, the hryvnia has strengthened by 2.3% against the dollar and 3.1% against the Euro. This situation allowed the NBU to buy the excess and replenish the gold and foreign exchange reserves of $300 million. Experts suggest that next week, the hryvnia, if not grow, it certainly will not subside. “We expect a moderate decline in the dollar against the hryvnia. The dollar on the interbank market can be traded in a week about 26.5 UAH and the cash dollar in banks of about 26.4/UAH 26.6” – said a senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub.
From Monday to Wednesday, the interbank market was not working, the auction was last Friday and this Thursday. While last Friday before the holidays, the dollar fell significantly, and on Thursday already partially recovered, recalls Iosub.
Financial analyst Vladimir Mazurenko also sure in the next week in Ukraine is expected gradual strengthening of the national currency. According to experts, in the best case, the dollar can fall in price to UAH 26.3/$.
“The season starts good the proceeds of the export. See a good situation on foreign markets. Politically, the situation is also stable. A week – definitely not expect significant changes, especially for the worse,” – said Mazurenko.
Analyst Yegor com adds: in Ukraine, began the seasonal strengthening of the Euro. At the same time as last year, the growth of the hryvnia ahead of the beginning of summer. “Elections, courts around Privat – all of this, as you can see, the market directly is not affected. See good supply and moderate demand. If so, you’re gonna have to have a very narrow corridor below the psychological mark,” says Komov.
In 2018 the American currency in comparison with “colleagues” gained 8%. But this year, the dollar has weakened. Soft monetary policy of the Federal reserve system provided the impetus for the devaluation. Morgan Stanley has released an article, which stated: “the trend of 2018 will unfold backwards.” And one of the main reasons: changing state policies. There will be no more rate hike (at least this year).
And in the longer-term dynamics expected global shift towards savings and the United States in this situation are in a vulnerable position. Countries with a surplus (a surplus) in current account will behave more cautiously, but the US with its status as the largest debtor in the world will be under attack.
“We expect a number of changes in the global economic situation, which, along with several negative medium-term factors point rather to decrease than to increase the dollar in 2019”, – stated in the macroeconomic forecast from Goldman Sachs.
Because of the high deficit, the dollar can fall in price on 30%, said investor ray Dalio. “We sell a lot of Treasury bonds, and we as Americans will not be able to buy them all,” he said. “The Federal reserve will have to print more money to fill the deficit will have to monetize more and this will lead to depreciation of the value of the dollar,” – said the billionaire Bloomberg.