Dragon Capital forecasts real GDP growth of Ukraine in the time remaining, 2019

Dragon Capital прогнозирует рост реального ВВП Украины в оставшееся время 2019 года

Investment company Dragon Capital, predicts growth in real gross domestic product of Ukraine, although previously predicted a drop compared to last year.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in 2019 will grow by 3.2% due to higher-than-expected domestic demand (consumer and investment).

Be updated by the end of six months the macroeconomic forecast published one of the leading Ukrainian investment companies Dragon Capital, previously to evaluate the growth of the domestic economy this year by 2.5%.

According to him, the external environment in the first half proved to be the better for Ukraine than expected, in particular due to sudden favourable change in the price of iron ore and gas.

And though in the second half of the year in the Dragon Capital expected deterioration in the terms of trade, annually updated projections still better than it was.

The projected increase in real GDP in 2020 remained the same – 2.8%, as positive impact of higher demand will be offset by the reduction of Russian gas transit, the document says. If six months ago, Dragon Capital analysts expected a decline of transit by 20%, now 50%.

To revise their forecasts and decided the NBU – for the same reason as Dragon Capital: strong domestic demand and a good harvest.