Early introduction of quarantine in the United States could prevent about 54 thousand deaths from the coronavirus. This is evidenced by research scientists from Columbia University published on medRxiv Thursday, may 21.
Since mid-March in the United States began to take action against the proliferation COVID-19, but their efficiency was less pronounced than in other countries.
The researchers created a model illustrating how a reduction in contacts between people, which began in mid-March, slowed down the transmission of the virus. The scientists also showed, as might happen if such measures were taken by the authorities of one or two weeks earlier, and assess the degree of infection and number of deaths to 3 may. For was based on data from several large Metropolitan areas including new York and Los Angeles.
“Modeling shows that if the same measures of control have been implemented before only for 1-2 weeks, it would be possible to prevent a significant number of cases of infection and death,” said work.
According to the simulation results, the measures taken a week earlier could reduce the number of infected in the US almost 704 thousand people (61,6%) and deaths by almost 36 thousand (55%). And if measures of social distancing was imposed two weeks earlier, it probably would have been avoided about 960 thousand cases of infection COVID-19 (84%) and almost 54 thousand dead (82,7%).
“This dramatic reduction of morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of control measures stressed the urgent need for decisive and rapid response to the pandemic COVID-19”, – concluded scientists.