Exchange of prisoners: why everybody was looking for him today, and what’s really going on

Обмен пленными: почему все ждали его сегодня и что происходит на самом деле

Rumors that Moscow flew the plane with captured Ukrainians and on the morning of 30 August, he landed in Kiev, caused a lot of noise. However, it was only rumors. Why were they and when in fact the Kremlin will return the captives Ukraine – journalists understood 24 channels.

The story of why the Russian media started spreading information that the prisoners of the Kremlin will soon return to Ukraine, and why you believe it, the Ukrainians, actually fairly short.

Why everyone started to talk about the exchange of prisoners?

Because of the General Prosecutor of Ukraine Ruslan riaboshapka on the night of 30 August, on his page in Facebook posted the entry from the page the wearer Anna Islamova (assistant of the Deputy of the previous convocation Arthur Ward) that the plane with Ukrainian prisoners will soon be in Kiev. Anna Islamova wrote that the return home of Ukrainian prisoners of war sailors, and also Oleg Sentsov, Paul Mushroom, Nikolai Karpyuk and Mr Baluch.

An hour earlier, around midnight, ex-Deputy of the state Duma of Russia Ilya Ponomarev, who received Ukrainian citizenship, said about the possibility of sharing today.

Media accepted information, that is spread on the page of the attorney General, as a confirmation of the exchange of hostages and prisoners, which talked a lot in recent days. And disseminated by the news, which is not entirely untrue.

Anna Islamova, which published the message, in your social profile indicates that she is an employee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Although in reality we are talking about the Deputy Luchanskogo city Council, who emotionally reacted to the Russian journalists disseminated information and made the appropriate post. Which, in the end, and spread riaboshapka. Now post with her page deleted.

The news that the exchange took place, was so struck by the relatives of prisoners and journalists that they went to the capital airport “Zhulyany”, which supposedly was to bring Ukrainians. However, after a few hours it became clear that nobody flies, and the dissemination of information turned out to be fake.

What’s really going on?

In the morning the security Service has denied the Commission of the exchange as a fait accompli, and noted that negotiations are continuing. In the Office of the President of Ukraine also stressed that the exchange of prisoners is not yet over, and urged journalists not to trust dubious sources of information.

Activists, lawyers and human rights activists working with prisoners, periodically explain what everything points to an early release.

See also video from Russian prison, where the prisoners were Ukrainians contain:

However, when the actual exchange occurs is unknown. The lawyer of the arrested Russians in Ukraine Valentin Rybin, for example, explained that he is on 3 September. However, official confirmation of this. In SBU declare that agreement on any particular date is still there.

Someone to whom I was?

Rumors about a large exchange of detainees between Russia and Ukraine is different. Clear exactly what change should the Russians, who were convicted and imprisoned in the Ukraine, the Ukrainians, who are political prisoners of the Kremlin.

A separate category – the Ukrainian seamen, captured by Russian forces in the Kerch Strait, which are prisoners of war.

UN international Tribunal for the law of the sea ordered Russia to release them immediately and unconditionally.

Interchange formats were discussed varied – “33 33”, “35 by 35”, “102 50”, “all for all”. Ukrainian political prisoners, as they say, can give Ukraine to “punishment” in exchange for the Russians, who are contained behind bars in Ukraine. But this format can be a kind of trap from Moscow. And – multi-level trap.

By adopting this option exchange, Ukraine, in fact, recognizes the verdicts of Russian courts. Including those that had adopted a “courts” in the occupied Crimea. Moreover, to include in the lists of the Ukrainian sailors is to give the Russian President an opportunity to “save face” and take a step towards the recognition of the occupation of the Crimea.

Why is there fake news?

It’s hard to say. Often these fakes start in the information space to increase the pressure on one side of the negotiations and to strengthen their own positions. A lot of people said that it could be the instrument through which Russia is trying to exchange much more than the return of its citizens.

One of the options, as noted by the Director of the Institute for national policy Yuriy Sulipa, is to have an exchange 33 33 after the meeting in “Norman format” and to take additional (capitulation) before you aggressor for Ukraine, which would lead to irreversible consequences. “For example, the implementation of “Minsk agreements” in terms of amending the country’s Constitution on conditions of the Kremlin on the orders of representatives of the Russian occupation administration in Ukraine has begun an irreversible process of loss of controllability by the country to strengthen the enemy’s influence,” he said.

Another option – Russia specially delaying the exchange of prisoners, to encourage the authorities of Ukraine to the disadvantageous formula exchange. In particular, according to the founder of the British edition of “Bellingcat”, Putin wants Kiev to let go of a suspect of involvement in MH17 in the Donbas by Vladimir Tzemach. It is a key witness in the case was shot down over Donbass passenger plane that can prove the involvement of Russia to disaster.

Who is Vladimir tsemakh and why it is important for the Russian Federation? The security service of Ukraine of 27 June, conducted a special operation on the territory of the so-called “DNR” and detained the former “commander of the air defense” Pro-Russian militants in the Snowy city of Vladimir Tzemach. He was arrested for two months.

In an interview with Russian advocates of the tzemach told about the Downing of the Boeing flight MH17 and explained that the militants, they say, were aiming at a Ukrainian aircraft. Gunman talked about how he pulled the “some kid” was hiding “something”. What hid tzemach – video “zapikali”. However, journalists, lip-reading, expressed confidence that he was talking about SAM “Buk”.

Subsequently, the terrorist group “DNR” Tzemach included in the list of persons who would like to exchange for prisoners of Ukrainians.

Russia is mostly interested in the fact that the Tzemach gave her, not the Netherlands. This will help her to abort the trial regarding the shooting down of the plane.

However, as noted Ukrainian journalist Yuri Butusov, this option will greatly harm Ukraine. Giving Tzemach, she will receive from the Netherlands claims about the failure of key investigations and will help Russia to avoid responsibility for the tragedy.

It will all end?

We’ll find out. Sooner or later Russia will be forced to let go of Ukrainian prisoners of war sailors and to give Ukraine all political prisoners. The probable date of the exchange, which are discussed in the media, is close to this location for weeks. The main intrigue is that Russia will get from Ukraine.

Обмен пленными: почему все ждали его сегодня и что происходит на самом деле