Last Friday, the dollar soared to 26 UAH/$. Experts explained to the editor, what to expect after the elections and how much political events affect the exchange rate.
“Today, the practice shows that political events such as presidential and parliamentary elections, the situation with the exchange rate impact is minimal. Because before the presidential elections had different expectations and after but they did not materialize. There were small fluctuations of the hryvnia, and more side bolstering than devaluation,” says economist Andrew Novak.
He adds that now in the currency market occur conventional processes – the course is slightly strengthened, then is the devaluation.
“But the amplitude of these oscillations is within the boundaries of the regular daily trading on the interbank market, which then appears in the cash rate. And after the parliamentary elections I do not expect any significant fluctuations of the hryvnia, there is no compelling economic and financial reasons. The newly elected President along with his team said that the cooperation with the International monetary Fund will continue – no sudden moves Ukraine will not do. And the IMF gave signals, that is, at least to be completed the current program of financial assistance stand-by. And after that you will be talking about the new program. The cooperation will continue”, – explained the expert.
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He adds that he will continue the partnership with the International Bank, the European Bank for reconstruction and development, governments of dozens of countries. This means that any financial disruptions are not expected.
“There is a growth of negative balance of trade, which, unfortunately. But it kompensiruet direct foreign currency inflow from migrant workers, which goes quite rapidly. And it covers foreign exchange outflow. Reason for surprises in the currency market. But of course a lot will depend on how will the new government formed after the parliamentary elections. And also – what will be the policy of the national Bank and whether there will be change leadership. But I think that no sudden moves are expected,” predicts Andrew Novak.
Economic expert Alexander Okhrimenko says that the dollar still will jump. But it will not be connected with political processes in the country.
“The election generally does not affect the exchange rate, and, after, the horses will be no significant changes will not. But we have a seasonal tradition – usually in summer there is a revaluation, but the fall will be devalued. And if you fall, you will see that the rate is 27 UAH/$, it is not necessary to draw conclusions about the impact of the elections or the National Bank”, – said Okhrimenko.
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He adds that now the country’s excess currency that the national Bank constantly buys, and it does not end.
“Ukraine is now overloaded with currency. And in the fall the demand for it will grow, and the NBU will partially sell. But a substantial devaluation is not predicted, we have no factors that can stimulate it. And now more of a problem with inflation, which is really present,” says Okhrimenko.
With regard to seasonal and currency fluctuations, he explains – in the summer on imported goods there are no buyers.
“As a rule, people are more actively acquiring smartphones, cars and household appliances closer to the end of the year. And after the new year and summer is not profitable, this was a pattern”, – said the expert.