At the conference in Berlin representatives of the Russian gas lobby asked about the existing risks for the project “North stream-2” and plans “Gazprom” concerning the Ukrainian gas transit.
“Prospects for energy cooperation Russia – EU. Gas aspect”. The so-called held on 16 may in Berlin, an international conference, which every year arranges the Russian gas society with the active participation of “Gazprom”.
Speakers at the forum representatives of the Russian company and its European partner companies, as in former years, proved the benefits of gas as an energy source, and this time is emphasized by its environmental friendliness. But journalists akkreditovyvalisj at this conference were interested in other issues – the impact of a possible new U.S. sanctions against firms involved in the implementation of the project “Northern stream – 2”, as well as the prospects of Russian gas transit to Europe via Ukraine.
Gazprom is not afraid of sanctions
To the question about the possible consequences of new sanctions, which the US threatening to impose, in particular, against firms from Switzerland and Italy, owning vessels-pipelaying, the official Russian figures respond differently.
So, the President of the Russian gas society, Chairman of the state Duma Committee on energy Pavel Zavalny believes that the practical consequences of such sanctions will not, because, they say, the company that owns the whisky, no commercial interests in the United States do not have, and therefore the us sanctions do nothing to them.
But Russian Deputy energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky did not rule out that some Western firms will yield to the US pressure. But this, he says, does not matter. “If the pressure of one or the other company involved in this project, you will not be able to continue to participate in it, said Yanovsky, – economic situation of “Gazprom” allows him to independently complete the implementation of this project.”
On specifying question of the correspondent DW if “Gazprom” and to replace the Western pipe-laying ships, the Deputy Minister replied in the affirmative.
The rules of the EU and the “Nord stream – 2”
However, unlike previous years when the gas lobbyists from Russia very confidently stated that the construction of “Nord stream – 2” is proceeding strictly to schedule and at the end of this year, the pipeline will be commissioned, now they have a doubt on this score.
Pavel Zavalny, in particular, drew attention to the missing permission of Denmark to the laying of pipes in its territorial waters. Early June, when Denmark will hold elections, it is the decision of Copenhagen doesn’t expect. And if it is negative?
In this case, said the logjam, “Nord stream – 2” will be a long 42 miles to have to pull the gas pipeline bypassing Danish territorial waters. The consequence is not only delay in its commissioning, but also higher prices, which will have to pay for gas to consumers in Germany and other EU countries.
Worried about Russian gas and for them clearly suddenly quickly adopted in the EU’s decision to extend the European energy legislation and offshore pipelines. One of those rules designed to prevent monopolies in this area is that the owner of the gas and the pipeline may not be the same firm, that is “Gazprom”. If the Russian company to sell the “Nord stream – 2” independent operator?
Obviously, in the headquarters of “Gazprom” this topic is discussed. At least Alexander Ishkov – Deputy head of one of departments of the group – such variant is not excluded, though, and answered evasively to the question of the correspondent DW. “I think that these issues will be examined in its real – he said, – when the pipeline is built”.
This means that Gazprom allow for the possibility that between the completion of the construction of “Nord stream – 2” and the commissioning may take some time for the negotiations on the EU regulations.
What prevents a new transit agreement
In such a situation, even more importance is the question of the future of the Ukrainian transit of Russian gas to Europe. But the Deputy Chairman of “Gazprom” Elena Burmistrova touched on this subject only in passing, although she acknowledged that “the extremely topical issue of the fate of transit through the territory of Ukraine”. But “the crucial statements on this matter”, she chose to abstain.
Unlike Burmistrova Anatoly Yanovsky has recognized Russia’s interest in preserving the Ukrainian route for Russian gas to Europe. “Of course, we are interested in further use of the Ukrainian gas transportation system, but, of course, on acceptable economic terms,” he said.
According to Deputy Minister of energy, agreement on a new transit agreement to replace expiring at the end of this year, prevent “unjust decision of the arbitration court in Stockholm”, is overpriced, in his opinion, tariff the views of the Ukrainian side and demands to lock in future volumes of transit gas.
How much gas will remain on the Ukrainian transit?
Meanwhile, according to estimates of Russian gas, these volumes should be very significant. Pavel Zavalny, answering questions of journalists, has led such calculations.
Only Russia supplies Europe with about 200 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas per year, 80 billion of them via Ukraine. The design capacity of “Nord stream – 2” – 55 billion, “Turkish stream” is 32.5 billion cubic meters.
But both of these pipeline, according to Zavalny, can not replace the Ukrainian transit, as demand for imported gas in Europe will grow. By 2030, he predicts, will require an additional 100 billion cubic meters per year, and by 2040-mu – to $ 150 billion.
Logjam comes from the fact that half of the additional gas, the EU will buy in Russia. Respectively, the Ukrainian transit will account for 50 to 75 billion cubic meters. “In that case, unless the transit through Ukraine, – concluded the President of the Russian gas society, we have to build “Nord stream – 3” and two times to expand the “Turkish stream”.