The turnover of Germany with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus in 2019 decreased, the Ukraine has increased, with Uzbekistan was growing rapidly. But before Poland and the Czech Republic all of them away.
In the list of the most important foreign trade partners Germany Russia at the end of 2019 took 13-th place. However, it is not only with a large margin lost to the leaders – China, Netherlands, USA, France and Italy but also Eastern European Poland and the Czech Republic. Moreover, this year it might be overtaken by Hungary, which has become for German businesses to larger export market than Russia.
This is evidenced by data from the Federal statistical office of Germany (Destatis). Exclusive access it has to the Eastern Committee of German economy (OAOEV), representing the interests of German companies operating on the markets of Eastern Europe and former Soviet countries. He regularly publishes and analyzes statistics related to economic cooperation with 29 countries in this region.
The Eastern Committee of German economy very happy with Poland
The main conclusion to be released in late February data for 2019, the head of the Eastern Committee Oliver Hermes (Oliver Hermes) is described as: “the Rate of growth of exports in our region is three times higher than the growth of German exports in General.” In this case the locomotive, he said, was once again Poland.
The volume of export-import operations with the German business she surpassed last year’s Britain (affected by the consequences “Brekzita”) and climbed to 6th place in the list of most important foreign trade partners of Germany, ahead of the United Kingdom, Austria, Switzerland. In 10th place – Czech Republic.
The trade turnover of Germany with Poland reached in 2019 almost 123.5 billion Euro, with the Czech Republic and 92.7 billion With Russia, he made 57,77 billion euros. Thus, in the region, operated by the Eastern Committee of the Russian Federation – at the 3rd place. Closely followed by Hungary, holding at the same time in 14th place in the overall list.
The EU country with the population less than 10 million in 2018, was for German exporters a larger market than Russia. In 2019 Hungarian businesses and consumers have bought German goods in the 27 billion euros, the Russians – by 26.53 billion, But Russia, the largest supplier of oil, gas and coal in Germany, ahead of Hungary’s exports to Germany.
The result of the German-Russian trade turnover was at the end of 2019 approximately 1.9 billion euros more than German-Hungarian, accounted for nearly 55.9 billion. So Hungary has a real chance in the foreseeable future, perhaps as early as 2020, overtaking Russia by the total volume of export-import operations with Germany.
Russian exports to Germany fell by 13.2 percent
Moreover, if continued the negative trend last year, when exports from Russia to Germany fell by 13.2% to 31,24 billion euros. However, Oliver Hermes said in a press statement that “this is not due to diminishing interest in Russia, and with the temporary interruption of supply due to contamination of the pipeline “Druzhba”, as well as decreased procurement prices for crude oil and natural gas.”
The work of the pipeline has long been restored, but the price of oil and gas have fallen this year, in Europe even more, including the epidemic of the coronavirus and the abnormally warm winter. Furthermore, Germany has committed itself to abandoning the use of coal, and the demand for it will fall.
So a further reduction of the Russian-German trade turnover amounted in 2019 is 6.6%, it seems quite realistic. Especially if Russia because of the policies of import substitution and possible weakening of the ruble will cut purchases of German goods. However, last year, deliveries from Germany increased by 2.6%. Oliver Hermes has called this increase “ground clearance” and called for “political détente and to overcome the sanctions.” In his opinion, Russia and Ukraine did in the last time “steps in the right direction.”
Dirty oil “Friendship” blew up the trade with Kazakhstan
From idle “Friendship” Oliver Hermes was tied up and the fall of the Kazakhstani exports to Germany by 13.7%. This has led to a reduction in bilateral trade in 2019 from 9.4 percent to 4.67 billion euros, while Kazakhstan increased the import of German products by 2.2%.
Fell last year by 2.3% to 2.04 billion Euro and bilateral trade between Germany and Belarus, with the Belarusian export to Germany has decreased by 6.9%, which is likely also related to the prolonged downtime of “Friendship” and the Belarusian oil refineries. Belarusian imports of German goods also fell, but only slightly by 0.4%.
Cooperation of Germany and Ukraine: the growth of exports and imports
At the same time, in trade with Ukraine continued to increase, amounting to export and import approximately 8%. As a result, bilateral trade turnover made up 7.75 billion € 4,89 billion ensured that German products to the Ukrainian market. This may indicate the growing power of modernization of the Ukrainian economy, since the main exports of Germany are usually along with vehicles, machines and industrial equipment.
Oliver Hermes called the dynamics of development of German-Ukrainian economic cooperation is “very encouraging”. According to him, “with the advent of new government has increased the credibility of Ukraine as a country for investment.” The head of the Eastern Committee intends in March to visit Kiev, and in June of the planned German-Ukrainian economic conference in Lviv.
Uzbekistan is increasing its import of German products
Of the 29 countries with whom OAOEV, the highest growth of bilateral trade turnover was demonstrated last year in Uzbekistan. Volumes of export-import operations has increased (although with a fairly low level) 27% to 908 million euros.
While this amounted to 877 million German exports to the Central Asian country, which again indicates the growing force of modernization of the Uzbek economy. The Eastern Committee noted in this regard the positive effect of those reforms implemented in Uzbekistan in 2016. At the same time OAOEV pointed to the great potential for further cooperation with the country, which is home to 32 million people.