Goldman Sachs Group Inc. after JPMorgan Chase&Co has reduced the forecast yield of US Treasury bonds, waiting for the lingering consequences of a trade war between the US and China, as well as dovish reversal by the leading Central banks of the world.
Strategists at Goldman lowered its forecast for yields on 10-year securities in the United States to 1.75%, which is consistent with the updated may 31 assessment of JPMorgan.
The week before that Goldman predicted yield at 2.8%. The Bank also lowered the rating of the yield bonds of Japan, the Eurozone and other developed countries.
“The global market rally of the debt, likely to continue to be that is caused by the stimulating policy of the Central banks, economic weakness in the near term and a number of asymmetric risks”, including a trade war, tensions in the middle East and Brexit”, – stated in the review of the strategy.
A significant reduction in the forecasts due to new turns in monetary policy and global risk, as well as “a sense that the dynamics of many of these drivers in the near future will not expect attenuation of the rally of bonds,” wrote strategists at Goldman.
“What concerns US, then, starting easing, the fed will only stop encouraging growth data and easing connected with a trade war risk,” write the strategists.