Hard Brexit: the battle of Britain with Europe will last another decade

Нелегкий Brexit: битва Британии с Европой продлится еще десятилетия

On Tuesday, October 29, the House of Commons of the British Parliament voted to dissolve. Next extraordinary elections of deputies held on 12 December. The President of the European Council Donald Tusk sent a letter in which recommended to continue negotiations on Brexit until 31 January 2020.

Politicians made the decision after the formal request of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Although in a private letter, Johnson asked them not to move the date of completion of Brexit, 28 October, he sent a letter to the President of the European Parliament Donald Tusk, which has agreed to the new conditions.

Johnson is known for his tough stance on Brexit and has previously stated that it is better to die in a ditch than to stay in the EU after October 31. He is now in favor of holding early parliamentary elections in the UK on 12 December.

Elections may not bring victory to the Johnson, but will deepen the existing problems because the country risks to Parliament without an absolute majority. Because of its Imperial ambitions, London has driven itself into a crisis that is destroying the country and in the end only leads to more integration with the EU. This opinion was expressed by “Apostrophe” Paul Kjær, University of Copenhagen Business School, Denmark.

Before Boris Johnson’s choice was to try to push the agreement through Parliament, in spite of everything, or hold elections. He chose the latter. Elections still had to be held early in December of this year or next spring. It should be noted that he was a gambler and an ardent champion. But his position is vulnerable because Brexit the party will try to tear away votes from Johnson led by conservatives, going under the slogan “With a Brexit is not finished.” On the other hand, people are tired Brexit, and Johnson promised to complete it if I get the most. Now the situation is critical for the Prime Minister, if he doesn’t get a majority in Parliament, then it will be the end.

The old two-party system in Britain is broken, and this means that it is difficult to predict how it ends. How many parties – so many results of opinion polls that are very different from each other. Even if you can predict which party will get how many votes, it is unclear which candidate wins in your district which through the electoral system “first-past-the-post” system (of relative majority – type, majority voting when the Parliament passes the candidate who receives more votes than any of the competitors separately, “Apostrophe”).

“Party” Brexit and the liberal Democrats, likely to lose. The conservatives have the greatest chance of winning and even form a majority in Parliament. But Boris Johnson needs to “comfortable majority” so he could sign a final agreement with the EU, ignoring the most radical brasilero. But it will be very difficult to achieve.

It is most likely that after the elections the UK will receive a so-called “hung Parliament”, that is, no party will get absolute majority. There is a possibility that the result will be the same problem as now – will not be the majority for any possible decision on Brexit.

Brexit will last at least another decade. Can be formal Brexit after the early elections. But then another will continue the negotiations on a new permanent agreement on relations between the EU and Britain. The agreement is likely to include many that stipulates EU membership. The battle regarding the content of relations with the rest of Europe will be crucial for British politics for years.

Strategically and in the long term, the EU could become stronger because of the crisis with Brexit. In fact, it is not a crisis for the EU – rather, it is a crisis for the political and constitutional system of the United Kingdom, which entails the disintegration of the Union of four Nations – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Brexit built on the idea of a return to the past (Imperial), which no longer exists. Initially, it arose because of an incorrect understanding of the place of Britain in the world and its power. I’m guessing that in 20 years Britain will be even more integrated into the EU than it is now.

As for security issues, Brexit mean that the EU must accelerate the development of a common defence and security policy in the EU, because the UK via Brexit and the United States because of President Donald trump – are no longer reliable partners. Will increase the pressure on Hungary and Poland, because of the 27 EU countries opposed to further integration.