Vladimir Zelensky returned to Ukrainian citizenship to Mikhail Saakashvili. Last promised tomorrow to fly to Ukraine. Missed, obviously. But you just don’t miss the landscapes of Kiev “with the smell of kebabs in the metro”, not in a luxurious apartment near downtown, but for political activities. In a casino game, the drive, the struggle against those he considers enemies, big money and media attention. It is clear that its turbulent energy Saakashvili will direct it into the political mainstream. It would be naive to assume that it will open a kebab or get philosophical position of the postman or lighthouse Keeper. And in that capacity Zelensky is going to use the former President and the former Governor. That’s just the political side full of those who hoped to use Saakashvili solely in their own interests. Yes, even in Poroshenko ask.
Zelensky, the President suddenly found that he is surrounded by not nice people with different views and a willingness to dialogue, and real predators. Experienced political predators that can eat it in the short term. Attempts to overcome them is doomed to failure – too much of a difference in the experience. Here the President and understands that he needs “your” Raptor of the same scale. Saakashvili must be suitable for this role. Pitfalls in the long term Vladimir Zelensky tries to ignore it – not to the strategies now. Who makes the winner of the election to worry about protecting?
On the one hand Igor Kolomoisky, who from yesterday’s partner turns into a very demanding and expensive ally. He’s already with the scandal pushed his protégé to the position of head of the presidential Administration, brought in Igor pros and Zelensky – only reputational loss. Will continue fight for Governor’s seat and control of the SOEs. Plus, the quotas in the list of “public Servants” in the elections. Kolomoisky will get the most delicious bites, and set his people he will, regardless of their toxicity. And all the blows to the reputation and the wrath of the disillusioned voter’s expected will get Zelensky. This is already happening.
The second problem the new President will be traditionally Yulia Tymoshenko, who confidently aspires to the Premiership. The overall picture of the ratings of political forces dictates Zelensky only one version of the coalition in the Verkhovna Rada of the new convocation. Once he ruled out an Alliance with the opposition bloc and renamed the BPP, remains a “Servant of the people Fatherland Mazhoritarshchik”. With the majority of the price is easier to negotiate, but Julia will require the Prime Minister. And no matter how much less “public Servants” will be her faction. If it does – the price will be the maximum. And the post of Prime Minister – only the key position, there is still a lot to add. In the case of consent Zelensky to the demands of Tymoshenko, he is doomed. Doomed to repeat the fate of Yushchenko, who also loved and the rating was through the roof. But Tymoshenko destroyed it just over a year. She was wearing a white, and Yushchenko painfully counted their 5% and trying to figure out what happened. The script is predictable, and Zelensky calculates this prospect easy.
Thus Zelensky was in a situation where he is surrounded by the closest friends. Gripping it all the tighter the encirclement. And in this situation he needs a strong, Taran, undertaking a war with the potential political friends. In the first place with Tymoshenko and Kolomoisky. Saakashvili, at first glance, there is ideal. At the time it is with this purpose he was invited to Ukraine and give citizenship to Petro Poroshenko. What reforms in the Georgian sample, do not tell. After all, Poroshenko did Saakashvili’s Advisor on reform, the head of the strategic Council or a key figure in any strategic position on reforms across the state. Is that right?
No, Poroshenko gave Saakashvili in addition to passports “to feed” one of the richest regions of Ukraine, instead of putting the task of “watering” in the information field of those whose competition he feared. First Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, whose party in the election received more votes than the BPP. Then the naughty of the Minister Avakov. Then the rebellious oligarch Kolomoisky. Everyone who is irritated or frightened the incumbent head of state. Saakashvili served faithfully on the area waved his hand, and heroically fought against the enemies of the President, calling it a fight against corruption. The word “huckster” in his vocabulary came later, when he turned weapons against the former employer. How it ended for Poroshenko, seen by all. Including Zelensky.
History goes in a circle, often with preservation of the characters. Poroshenko brought Saakashvili to fight with Yatsenyuk. Zelensky brings Saakashvili has to deal with Poroshenko, Kolomoisky and Tymoshenko. Why with the same starting conditions need to expect a different result? I guess in a year or two we may see in Mariinsky Park tents and hear the fiery speech of Saakashvili, urging people to fight the “huckster Zelensky”, when he does not pay the excessive bills of the former President of Georgia. Because everyone who communicates with Saakashvili end up the same.
By the way, funny forecast. It is not excluded that Vladimir Zelensky will have to deprive Mikhail Nikolozovich Ukrainian citizenship. Because the absurd need to bring to complete. In this situation, Zelensky does not mind – he is an adult and responsible for his own mistakes. Importantly, in this fight the politicians and schemers, we wouldn’t have lost Ukraine. Such shocks it is not exactly good. However, which of the above will stop it? The lust for power disables all other senses. Well, we recently already seen it. As it turned out – we are waiting for the second series. Only instead of popcorn you want to buy salt, matches and canned goods…