The tension in us-China relations began to develop long before the coronavirus pandemic. Another stage of election campaign in 2016, Donald trump actively used the idea that “China should be put in place,” and with the beginning of his presidency, launched an offensive to China on all fronts. With the arrival of the pandemic in this confrontation has opened a new front coronavirus. And in recent days on this front gets really hot. “Apostrophe” has decided to understand the twists and turns of the next us-China conflict and to reveal its causes, which are, primarily, politically motivated.
Chinese secrets against the intelligence of the “five eyes”
From the beginning of the pandemic from the trump you could hear a lot of eccentric and even conspiratorial statements about the nature of origin, coronavirus and “Chinese track”. However, the world has become accustomed to such performances from the American President and perceives them with considerable skepticism. But the one trump did not stop.
U.S. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who unlike his immediate boss have always been restraint in recent days, throws statements and interviews about China and coronavirus. The main thesis to which the Secretary of state brings streamlined applications in the spirit of “we don’t have absolute proof, but…” is that a leak of the coronavirus came from the Chinese virological laboratories in Wuhan, and China bears direct blame for the pandemic and withholding information about the nature of the disease. Also in the speeches Pompeo and heard suggestions about handmade nature of the virus, but they quickly stopped (obviously, scientists who clearly believe that the coronavirus is a natural phenomenon, managed to get through to the Secretary of state).
Whether the us accusations real reason? Yes and no. On the one hand, the withholding of information from China, no doubt remains. To such conclusion came the consolidated Association of the US intelligence agencies, Australia, New Zealand, the UK and Canada, known as “Five eyes”, an excerpt from the report of which was published by the Daily Telegraph. Intelligence agencies are unanimous in asserting that the Chinese authorities forced the doctors to keep quiet about the virus, destroying the biomaterials laboratory and refused to provide samples of international experts working on a vaccine. Also China decided not to report that the coronavirus is transmitted from person to person – and this critical information was known to Chinese scientists in early December 2019, while the government officially acknowledged it’s only January 20th.
But about the origin of the virus in the Anglo-Saxon intelligence services to start controversy. The Americans claim that the source of contamination was the biological laboratory in Wuhan, and “patient zero” allegedly was her employee. On the one hand, the claims of the Americans seem plausible, as the laboratory in Wuhan was really involved in the study and synthesis of coronavirus, similar to SARS-CoV-2, which was discovered by Professor Shi Jinli with Wuhan Institute of Virology in the cave of Yunnan province in 2013. In General, the Institute of Virology in Wuhan owns the world’s largest collection of coronaviruses. But the regular violations of the security protocols and the lack of sufficient qualified personnel to work with biologically hazardous materials in the Wuhan Institute of American diplomatic and intelligence structures reported in 2018.
P4 laboratory in Wuhan Institute of Virology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
On the other hand, direct evidence of American theories have not yet been made public. Yes, and Pompeo and the trump (the last one even compared coronavirus from pearl Harbor) talking about the allegations of China and not on the belief that Beijing is fully to blame all the deadly sins. However, the realities of political life are such that no matter when we learn the truth about the culpability of China in the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Because of the suspicions and accusations has become sufficient to start the next round of U.S.-China confrontation.
Trompowsky plan for a trillion
First, the severity of the events and statements adds to the closeness of the electoral confrontation between trump and Biden, during which the incumbent President will have to deploy all available resources. “We must not forget that the trump on the nose elections. And voters need to explain reasons why all is not as it should be. Therefore, the charges of China are the basis of primarily political interests. Although China is and rational questions that the Chinese authorities do not answer, in any case, China will become the main justification for trump in the explanation of their failures. To blame the opposite side – a convenient argument, especially when there are certain reasons. It’s safe to say that Chinese theme in the elections will be very hot” , – told the “Apostrophe” associate Professor of the historical faculty of Kyiv national Taras Shevchenko, a specialist in China-us relations Makar Taran.
That political motives pursues the American President and his associates, accusing China in coronavirus “sins”, there is no doubt among experts around the world. But the problem is that the attack of Washington is not limited only to the charges in an attempt to mobilize the electorate in the upcoming elections. Calling their main goal is revenge coronavirus, trump announced that if the beginning of a new trade war with China, whether on the continuation of the old as if-that would complete the trade agreement 2019.
“We signed a trade agreement in which they had to buy, and they buy a lot, actually. But now it becomes secondary to what happened with virus. But here the situation is simply unacceptable,” – said the American media Donald trump.
The President’s plan is quite simple, but extremely radical – instead of long and dreary, and almost no chance of success, try to make the PRC compensation, the United States simply will impose duties on Chinese goods in the amount of 1 trillion (!!!) dollars. “Well, I can do it differently. Can I do the same thing, but even for big money, simply by installing duties,” said Donald trump.
The President’s plan expert circles estimate is very ambiguous. Indeed, in the context of the global economic crisis, generated by the same coronavirus pandemic, to engage in trade wars – is a dangerous business. “This is pure nonsense. New trade war – what the US economy does not need,” – says chief economist at RSM Joe Brusuelas.
“The decision of the President can deepen a permanent recession, since the new trade tension can lead to the fact that last year’s trade agreement between the US and China will lose power. Higher rates – or just the threat of their imposition can exacerbate the uncertainty facing businesses around the world. And it will add pressure on the already complex and challenging global supply chain. In the past, the argument for the deal with China was that the US economy was strong enough to withstand a trade war. And now the talk about the new duties are carried out in conditions when even his own economic advisors have warned trump about 20% unemployment and 40% drop in GDP in the United States. In other words, the US economy is extremely vulnerable,” – said economic analyst, CNN Business Met Egan.
The true motives of the American President
The question arises: is trump really does not see the economic realities, and ready to just start a risky confrontation with China in such difficult conditions? Moreover, to defeat China once the trade war and get as a winner of some “reparations” that will help to improve the situation in the United States before the election, is unlikely. Since the last trade war China has accumulated amortisation resource: several diversified trade, put forward the initiative of “one belt and one road” (referring to the new economic silk road), and established the best contacts with Europe. Not to mention the fact that war is a two-way process, and Beijing will not leave the us attacks without a response.
It’s possible that trump’s plan is not to win over China, and far more modest, but more achievable goals. “One gets the impression that the purpose of the tramp – not to align the trade balance and to the process of confrontation is victory in the form of some concessions from China. After all, if you look in General, during the presidential term, trump any foreign policy successes he had in fact not been. Therefore, it is important to get a major concession from China. However, the problem is that it is not the Chinese diplomatic style to take steps forward and back. China has been covertly and non-linear, and because of that progress on a new trade deal will not” – said Makar Taran.
Thus, the charge America for all the ills of China is a direct consequence of one’s desire trump to get a second presidential term. So although the story is far from complete, we can already say that the Chinese theme on the American election will be one of the most violent. And all the attention of the political establishment of the United States will be focused to this “performance”. This means that the rest of the world, including Ukraine, will have to wait and to deal with their problems.