In the West of Germany again, the outbreak of coronavirus. Again closed schools and kindergartens, museums and exhibitions, a ban on social contacts. This is the result of premature cancellation of the quarantine restrictions?
Interactive map of Germany illustrating online the spread of the coronavirus, there are two dark blue spots. In this color painted over those counties that during the week, the virus has infected more than 50 people out of 100 thousand of the local population. 50 people are considered a critical norm which, if exceeded, pose a risk of the uncontrolled spread COVID-19.
Both dark blue County is located in the Federal state of North Rhine – Westphalia, West Germany: gütersloh and Warendorf. There are several local outbreaks in Berlin in a separate multi-storey buildings and blocks in the districts of neukölln and Friedrichshain. Virologists are alarmed Germany can cover the second wave of the coronavirus.
An outbreak at the factory
The most worrying situation in gütersloh, where for the past seven days were registered 338 new cases of infection per 100 thousand inhabitants.
The epicentre of the outbreak became the largest in the German meat company T?nnies on which of the 7000 people employed have been infected more than 1,700 employees. How many members of their families, they managed to infect, is not yet known. The tests that the land authorities want to do in gütersloh required only begun.
According to the German virologists, the conditions prevailing in the factory, just perfect for the spread of the virus. In cooled departments in which the carcass is cut, people are working side by side, to comply with the prescribed distance of five feet is almost impossible. Moreover, because of the noise the workers to listen to each other, are forced to scream that dramatically increases the concentration of the aerosol in the exhaled air, but the coronavirus is transmitted by airborne droplets. Low temperatures increase its resistance.
Coronavirus loves the cold
“The air here is chilled, people work under stress and close to each other, they have to yell,” explains Professor Weber Friedemann (Friedemann Weber) from the University of gisane.
Because of this, according to him, the atmosphere appears to be especially a lot of respiratory droplets, and the aerosols are held for a very long time in cooled air indoors. That is where the cold should inhibit the growth of bacteria in cut of meat, SARS-CoV-2 feels like home.
This thesis is confirmed by the results of a study published in the American scientific journal Emerging Infectious Diseases: it was found that the longest coronavirus persists in the secretions from the nasopharynx at temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius.
As residents began to travel abroad gütersloh
The inhabitants of the dark blue counties had just begun to acquire a taste of the relaxation of quarantine-like restrictions were imposed again – almost as hard as in mid-March across the country.
Again meet can not more than two persons not living under the same roof. Again prohibited activities indoors. Again, closed museums and exhibitions, schools and kindergartens. You can’t have picnics in the parks. Restaurants, however, left open, but to visit them is allowed only to people living together.
Monday, June 29, in North Rhine – Westphalia start school holidays – summer holidays for families with children. This year a lot more Germans than before, decided to stay in Germany, in particular, on the coast of the Baltic sea. Travel in the Mediterranean EU countries is possible again, but as they say, better safe than sorry.
The residents gütersloh now was actually do travel abroad. From the island of Usedom is a Federal state of Mecklenburg – Vorpommern already sent 14 tourists who came to the Baltic from this dark blue district. Power another seaside of the Federal land Schleswig-Holstein stated that they would not let their tourist resorts, spelled out in districts where the number of new infections exceeds the critical rate of 50 people per week on 100 thousand inhabitants, or prescribe them a two-week quarantine. The exception will be done for those who may present negative results of a fresh test for the coronavirus. A similar decision was taken in Bavaria, which also is among the favorite holiday regions of Germany. In Austria tourists from gütersloh will.
Virologists fear the second wave of the epidemic
The renowned German virologist Christian Drosten (Christian Drosten), head of the Berlin Institute of Virology of the University hospital Charit?, fears that pockets COVID-19 in North Rhine – Westphalia and parts of Berlin can be a source of re-crawling epidemic in Germany.
In his daily podcast he gave the example of southern States in which despite the heat there was “a terrible situation”, the reason for which the scientist sees the premature abolition of quarantine restrictions. “I have no optimism about that in a month we will have the same stable situation as it is now – said Drosten. – I think that in a few months will have a serious problem if we don’t include all the available sensors alarm”.
Urging people to be alert and Director of the Institute named Robert Koch (RKI) Wheeler Lothar (Lothar Wieler). “We must remain vigilant: if we give the virus a chance to spread, he certainly will use them, as evidenced by the outbreaks occurred, said Wheeler. – I do not think that the weakening (quarantine regime in may. – Ed.) will remain without consequences.”
Doctor of the University in Marburg Max Gerads (Max Geraedts) warns that started during vacation trips, whether in Germany or in EU countries – is fraught with the risk of rapid re-distribution of the coronavirus. And Hyo Zeeb (Hajo Zeeb) from the Institute for preventive research and epidemiology in Bremen warns: “If we consider that the immune system there is only a very small fraction of the population, it is clear that in the right conditions the virus may again start to be spreading rapidly”.
The Germans suggest to get used to the restrictions
One of the most important indicators of infection is the coefficient of infection (or index reproduction), which is denoted as R. If R is less than one, so one virus carrier infects on average less than one healthy person. For several weeks the rate was in Germany consistently below one. After 21 June, it jumped to 2 – 3, that is, one patient infects two to three healthy.
However, given the fact that in the whole of Germany the number of newly infected people have long been kept at a very modest level of 300 – 500 people a day, Lothar Wheeler is not inclined to dramatize the growth of the ratio R. In this figure, according to him, have a massive impact such local outbreaks as the meat firms T?nnies in gütersloh or in a residential area in Berlin’s neukölln district, where residents are 370 apartments placed under home quarantine.
So the second wave of the epidemic, according to the Director of the RKI, it is possible to avoid if to use the already-proven instruments and measures against the epidemic. “It will be in the coming weeks and months, our normal way of life,” said Wheeler, referring to the current restrictions and the introduction of a local Loktionov in case of outbreaks of coronavirus.