Opinion: why Putin’s plan is doomed to failure

Мнение: почему план Путина обречен на провал

After the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is also facing a growing deficit of legitimacy

In contrast to the Belarusians, Putin did not wait for when the situation gets out of control and society will completely deny him the right to govern themselves.

What Putin

Putin launched several major projects to return to itself the legitimacy of this almost magical substance without which it cannot live and work any mode.

The implementation of these projects has already spent enormous resources. But now it becomes clear that pure and living water of popular legitimacy Putin does not get it.

Instead, can I “fake” a tincture of hawthorn, which he himself will be a distraction and will be the deceptive feeling of omnipotence. Then comes the inevitable in such cases, a heavy hangover with unpleasant consequences.

State employees and retirees massively forced to vote by mail or via the Internet. In other regions, voting is organized on the stumps, tents, bathhouse, in the back of a jeep or truck.

The voting will last a week, observers on sites and the protocols are simplified to such an extent that the test result will be impossible. Simply put, this is not a vote, this is not an election, this is bullshit and window dressing. It is a fake and performance.

Nothing to do with the real will of the people there. The consequence of such an arrangement is, of course, will need power result. Its just a draw. Without observers and protocols there is no difficulty.

However, this result is not even remotely reflect the real moods in society. And this is a very big danger for Putin. Already, almost all Russians see that the voting is fake.

In the spring many Russian and foreign observers no longer believe that Putin remains the de facto leader of his country. Then COVID-19 he was forced to hide in an underground bunker, as well as to postpone the vote on April 22 for the announcement itself, the eternal king and the may 9 victory day parade.

Scared Putin almost never appeared on TV, has effectively abandoned control of the country and behaved like a rag, and not as a decisive leader, a world power.

In these circumstances, the coronavirus is very quickly overcome by the Russian government. He defeated Putin. A complete rout was only avoided thanks to the actions of individual regional leaders.

In the Russian elite and society, there is a strong feeling that Putin is a wuss, a loser and a loser is that he brings nothing but misery, that to govern a country he is not capable. Unfortunately, all this happened when Putin decided to stay in charge of Russia until the end of his life.

And circumstances was screaming that soon it will be removed from power by his own supporters if he doesn’t turn the situation from head to foot and not be able to prove their ability to manage the processes. As a result, Putin decided to hold its classic dvuhhodovki.

First: to prove to everyone that he’s still in control. This 24 June in Moscow held a fake “victory parade”. The only purpose of it was to prove to the world and to itself that Putin is still the President that he won COVID-19, and not Vice versa.

The second: still to vote on the amendment of the Constitution for the ads himself the eternal ruler. This vote began on the next day after the parade on 25 June.

The purpose of the vote – getting of the Russian population of legitimacy that Putin has lost the spring and early summer. Russian officials have set a goal turnout in the vote must be at least 65%, and to vote for amendments should 70%.

In the end, more than half of all voters must support them. According to the Kremlin’s plan, this electoral triumph will return all Putin his legitimacy and allow peace to rule until 2036, or even longer.

Why voting is fake and performance

The plan is clear and precise. With the help of the administrative resource we can implement it without any problems. Most likely, it will. The victory will be resounding, deafening and intoxicating.

But a little trouble does start. It’s in the wrong choice of methods to achieve this victory. Relatively speaking, the tincture of hawthorn can give a person the feeling of omnipotence, but not the omnipotence.

Now to achieve victory in this vote Vladimir Putin and his subordinates took the unprecedented even by Russian standards of falsification. The most problematic for the authorities of the region – Moscow.

There is now on the Internet willing to openly offer money for registering false accounts in the Internet and e-voting for dozens of other people. In some districts, electronic voting is registering more people than live there.

So the result is “65% turnout and 70% for” they will be taken as drawn. If the power is for the sake of credibility will make it a little lower, it will be even worse. People will think: “How so even with a huge cheating are unable to collect as much as they wanted? Apparently, very bad things”.

Putin’s plan is doomed to failure

In General, in the current circumstances, any outcome of the vote the society will not perceive it as a manifestation of his trust Putin, but as a result of a huge fraud. For power there’s no good way out.

Vladimir Putin used that on elections it is necessary to obtain a specific percentage. He figures it considers evidence of trust and source of legitimacy. How are those figures obtained for him the armistice.

And in normal elections, this is true. People have no huge complaints and questions to the process. Everyone knows that this election. So I look at the final figures.

But now, according to polls, Putin’s popularity has fallen to 25%. In a hurry and the pursuit of the right digits Express the vote comes in the midst of the epidemic. Organized it’s just awful, and everyone is already noticeable and obvious.

How to change the rating of Putin?

November 2017: the rating of trust to the President of the Russian Federation amounted to 59%.

March 2019 – 41%.

January 2020 – 35%.

April 2020 – 28%.

May 2020 – 25%.

Of the totality of all these factors is increasing the level of legitimacy of the regime opposite will happen: he will lose a substantial part of it. Simply put, Putin’s plan to consolidate his power through a popular vote will be a factor of destabilization.

It is not perceived as the will of the people, and how the attempt to twist this people hands. When the size and scale of the mix-up July 2 will be announced, Putin’s approval rating would fall even more. And that will be the basis for the growth of protest moods.

As a result of all that is happening in Russia now, Vladimir Putin will soon lose the remnants of legitimacy and turned into the current of Alexander Lukashenko. Assume that Russia will come to the current situation in Belarus in August or autumn 2020.

Across the country to start rallies against Putin’s regime. This will be the most “hangover after hawthorn”, about which I spoke in the beginning of the program. And I think that’s very good news.

Ivan Yakovina