The main feature of the current parliamentary election campaign will focus on the figures of the leaders of political forces. And either a qualitatively new scale populist promises or the tendency to attempt to promise everything to everybody simultaneously. “For all good against all bad” – this pattern will sculpt their own electoral promises applicants for hit in the Supreme Rada.
“After the presidential election we saw that the promises are not fulfilled. You can do nothing to promise, because voters have no strategic memory, as a rule. Zelensky, for example, the move broke all their promises. He promised to resign, if you break the law, and allow for gross violations of both the Constitution and legislation almost daily. Now everyone will see that it is possible so that you can lie about anything – and no you will not ask for it. So, I think, lies will be a lot,” says the political scientist Alexander paly.
However, there are a number of topics that in their pre-election promises of politicians using particularly active. So – what are you going to catch voter’s policy at this time?
1. Wages and tariffs
The main source for “inspiration” in inventing populist slogans for politicians, as before, are the results of sociological surveys. And the first position in the list of issues that most concern Ukrainians take low salaries and pensions, as well as high tariffs. Therefore, we do not just hear promises “to lower the price of gas in 2,4, 6 times” or “set European wages tomorrow.” Thus, nobody will pay attention to the fact, in whose jurisdiction the adoption of such decisions.
“First of all promises will address the issues of Executive power, not legislative. It will be questions of incomes, social policy, humanitarian policy, not any significant legislative changes. The theme of increase of salaries, pensions and other similar matters will be particularly active. As the subject of tariffs. Although Parliament adopts the budget, and manages them with the Cabinet. Therefore, these issues is the merits or flaws of the government”, – said the political expert Sergey Bykov.
2. The end of the war and reconciliation with Russia
Of the political forces will have to rely on winning the sympathy “tired of war” and those who want reconciliation with Russia. Thus, it is possible that the first will be drawn into the second camp with the help of manipulations.
“It is a question not only of direct campaigning. Remember the video on Romania, which recently surfaced. Not exclude the possibility that attempts will be made to redirect voters to the fact that not only Russia is an aggressor in order to reduce the negative role of Russia. I think we have many such cases will see when problems will arise from the East and from the West. In fact, it will discoordinated voter who did not vote for, say, smartly, because there is Russia. But if there turns out to be such problems with Poland, Hungary, Romania – and why for him, in General, and not vote? “, – says political expert Bogdan Petrenko.
In his opinion, promises of benefits from the normalization of relations with Russia may even be followed by concrete actions – for example, a regular visit of some politicians in Moscow for talks with Putin or Medvedev. The visit, which will entail a specific tangible result – as an option, the release of Putin captured Ukrainian sailors. Of course, voters do not explain that the release of prisoners of war of Ukrainians Russian President is forced under pressure from the international community and the decision of the UN Tribunal on the law of the sea. Instead, such a move Putin can be presented as a result of a request of one or another Pro-Russian politician who allegedly made such a request.
However, mostly the questions of “reconciliation with Russia,” Ukrainian forces will play carefully. And if the updated party of Petro Poroshenko “European solidarity” will likely focus on the confrontation with the aggressor, then the other political leaders would prefer to show balancing act miracles.
“If you are talking about Zelensky, he will continue to try to stick to the topic “for all good against all bad”. If possible, make a nod, he makes it, but it did not played against him. However, Zelensky will push the time – and he will be forced to take any particular position. Moreover, the position requires. Although he will try to play in this scheme. As Yulia Tymoshenko, who, it seems, tries to flirt with conventionally Pro-Russian electorate and calcium behavior Zelensky. Hence – and her allegations that relations with Russia should start from a “clean slate,” – said Petrenko.
3. The language issue
Be used in the election campaign will be a language subject. It, according to political experts, will compete traditionally in the East and South of the country. Where the percentage of Russian-speaking population is particularly high.
“The linguistic subject can climb only in the Eastern and southern regions, home to many myths about the law on language and where many voters speak Russian and want to continue to do so. But this question is fairly divisive. To use his political force will be conditional white-blue sector, the basic electorate of which is in the South and East of Ukraine. The rest of the party it will not play. With the exception of “European solidarity”, which is the opposite in the West and in the center may indicate the adoption of the language law as a big achievement, on the protection of the Ukrainian language, and that he was under some kind of criteria took the first position in the world ” – says Bykov.
4. The fight against corruption and the punishment of their predecessors
The PR will be political forces who want to get into Parliament, and on the fight against corruption, demand for which exists in the society and on the promise to “put criminals predecessors.”
“Will actively voiced promises of punishment predecessors. In particular, from those forces who were opponents of the ex-President of Petro Poroshenko. Many will say that they are in Parliament to punish the previous government. And they will also receive some support”, – said Bykov.
“This is pure populism when playing confrontation. The presidential election was against Poroshenko. Zelensky and ratings – the 73% – those who voted against Poroshenko, but not for Zelensky. It will play on and on. Not necessarily against Poroshenko, although a certain inertia from the presidential election will persist. Will definitely be playing against lying. Because it has a high rating. And when you criticize it – you sort of identify yourself with a majority of the population that does not like the Parliament,” said Petrenko.
However, in response to a query of society, the political forces will have to declare a kind of renewal – and to focus on what are in the power of “new faces”. However, very often these “new faces” are just a cover hiding the old policy.
“Will try to use such divergent slogans, telling people what they charge new people. And in fact, we already see that for the same Zelensky, who promised new faces are not new Kolomoisky, Kuchma and Pinchuk,” – said paly.
5. Political reform: impeachment, removal of parliamentary immunity, open lists
The vast majority of Ukrainians the issue of legislative implementation of the procedure of impeachment of the President, cancellation or limitation of parliamentary immunity and the holding of elections on open party lists interested in times less than the size of salaries and reduction of public utilities tariffs. But this theme in his pre-election promises to be widely used practically by all political forces.
“The issues of political reform will not be as significant as they are not so sensitive to the voter. But they will be used. Here will be discussed about the limitation or the abolition of parliamentary immunity, the law of impeachment, amendment of the electoral law – if Parliament does not pass this week, the electoral code, which is unlikely. But if the will – the political forces present today in Parliament, will play on the fact that they made the new election code, they are the great reformers, almost the fathers of the nation. Although if the electoral code even will, work it only starts in 2023. So this is a fairly manipulative kind of thing,” – says Bykov.
6. Environmental problems
Now in the developed world increasingly popular, particularly in the context of political promises and party programs, takes on the environmental issue. There is a pattern: the higher the standard of living of citizens – the more they are concerned about the state of the environment. So in Europe the question of ecology is in the TOP 5 most important.
In Ukraine, the use of environmental issues in the election campaign has not yet received mass. But this topic is also slowly takes on the arms of the populists.
“The environment was topical in Ukraine for a considerable period of time. Then the interest in it has partially replaced the theme of war. In General, the environment in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is quite high, and to rise from the topic of security, from the topic the fridge to it long enough. So the mass is the subject at the national level to exploit unlikely. Another thing is the level of SMCS. At least one current topic in any district you can find any burial grounds or something. And you can include one of the items in the list of promises,” – said Petrenko.
Such examples we see during each election campaign. After all, the environment is very simple to manipulate. It is enough just to intimidate the voters of the dire consequences of existing or even imaginary problems.
“Such intimidation applies more to the local level. For example, in the Kiev region during the elections to the regional Council and elections work. he was raised very actively. Up to talk about the possibility of the appearance in Kyiv of a nuclear burial ground. Therefore, environmental issues may be relevant, but mostly for majority districts and the grassroots local level, ” – says Bykov.
To check whether certain policy sincerely for the environment and health of people, or their goal is to raise their political ratings is extremely simple: just ask them how they propose to solve the environmental problem, which they say.
“Under a variety of environmental slogans can fight each other oligarchs. We had many organizations that are type for the environment, and in fact their goal was or some company to stop the money from businessmen to bring down. This happens a lot. But there is no sober decisions how to influence the environment. So they scream about environmental issues. And what should I do? This is where it ends – on a single issue. Since there is no simple solution to environmental issues,” he asserted.
7. More shows, more trash
Given the public demand for change in political environment, politics slowly become more and more spectacular.
“Old politics has shown that the existing political parties does not differ significantly from each other. Therefore, increasing the request to change politics, more shocking, more emotional, “an anti-political” politicians. And this trend will continue in the future,” predicts Bulls.
May increase also the amount of bright stock and eccentric antics on the part of applicants for hit in Parliament.
“If we take the right-wing forces, relatively speaking, right-wing, the electorate today dragged on Poroshenko. So they need to concentrate not on the radicalism of the ideas and radicalism of action. The request is there. It is not about to throw somewhere in the grenade, as it was in 2014-15 and about promotions like those who like FEMEN or the one when Ncorpus threw the administration of the President of the toy pigs. Such actions are possible,” says Petrenko.
However, according to Oleksandr Paliy, can thicken and when to overcall negative messages and the mobilization of the electorate political forces make provocations against itself, then to blame opponents.
So the campaign is going to be quite dirty and generous promises. One has only to remember that promise, most likely, no one is going to perform.
So listen, analyze, think and choose consciously.