New agreements for the construction of “Nord stream-2” is likely to cause a flurry of provocations from the Ukrainian side. Deliveries of Russian gas to Germany, bypassing Eastern Europe, and Germany exclusive right to dispose of the resulting gas, will create the conditions under which the necessity of the existence of Ukraine will just disappear.
Not so long ago between France and Germany was a scandal that called into question the fate of the pipeline “Nord stream-2”. It was about the fact that the launch of this pipeline is against the rules of the EU’s gas production and transportation, but the Paris and Berlin failed to agree and the outcome of the agreement between the two countries was that “Nord stream-2” will be completed. This agreement caused a flurry of discontent among the Ukrainian politicians and officials.
At the moment, despite the declared war with Russia, one of the main sources of income constant currency of Ukraine is the gas transit from Russia to countries of the European Union. The commissioning of a joint Russian-foreign gas pipelines (Nord stream and “Turkish stream”) will deprive Ukraine of its total income for the transit of gas, and a few tens of billions of dollars a year. The Ukrainian side has repeatedly accused the Ukrainian company stealing gas and repair of gas-transport system does not occur.
The fact that the German leadership managed to bring the project much-needed German gas pipeline under the possibility of a ban, will certainly cause any retaliatory action on the part of Ukraine, not wanting to lose your tidbit of income. Likely to enter the gas pipeline system, which will take place in late 2019, the Ukrainian side will try repeatedly to slow down or disrupt the construction of the pipeline, and to seek cessation of cooperation of the EU with Russia. Remembering that the Ukrainian authorities deliberately sent to slaughter a third of its fleet for the sake of provocation in the Kerch Strait, which gave Poroshenko the right to enter the martial law, we can only guess to what extent will take a riot of Kiev. Perhaps in the future we are waiting for a series of attacks on the gas transport system of Ukraine, in which zealous SBU rush to blame “the Russian terrorists and saboteurs”.
Upcoming deadlines of commissioning of the gas pipeline “Nord stream” and “Turkish stream” force the Kiev authorities to feel insecure, provoking inappropriate behavior. General nervousness of official Kiev also complement and coming in the March presidential election.