Research unit Advanter Group together with the Ukrainian Institute for the future conducted a study of the status and prospects for Ukrainian business in connection with quarantine events and crises in the economy.
Small and large businesses in Ukraine are already experiencing significant loss and evaluate the possible reduction of income for 2020, an average of about 50% (including 28% of companies expected to reduce revenues by more than 60% during the year), writes Hvilya.
Advanter Group interviewed 458 enterprises, including micro, small, medium and large enterprises. The study was conducted 28.03 – 2.04.2020 with the support of the CEO Club, the business community Board of the CCI of Ukraine, business school MIM Kyiv, Prizma Club CFO Club Ukraine and dozens of other business associations in all regions of Ukraine.
38% of enterprises do not have the ability to hold more than 2 months in a quarantine.
Naturally, this figure varies considerably by industry. In particular, retailers of non-food products, tourism sector, education, restaurants suffer the most and more than 50% of enterprises in these sectors have a “margin of safety” for up to 2 months.
Evaluating the scenarios the vast majority of entrepreneurs indicate that the continuation of the quarantine and strengthening of quarantine measures is detrimental to the business.
In the case that quarantine measures will remain unchanged, 69% of companies estimate losses of more than 20% within 2020 compared to the year 2019. And if the quarantine will be extended until the end of may, the loss of more than 20% have already 84% of businesses and 44% are experiencing losses of more than 60%, or are considering the option of closing the business.
The vast majority of entrepreneurs believe that optimum from the point of view of restoration of business activity and the preservation of Ukraine’s economy from destruction by the smart application of quarantine measures, that is, the targeting of quarantine risk groups, territorial approach to the restrictions.
16% of companies have managed to adapt to the existing quarantine arrangements and 23% in the process of adaptation business. Other companies or don’t see opportunities for new activities and conversion or need additional investment.
Now a lot of analytical centers, including Advanter Group, TSES, UIM work on the elaboration and justification of the measures necessary for the stimulation of business activity and the preservation and creation of jobs. Going industry developments. In this case, the entrepreneurs themselves see the most effective can be such incentives from the state, as a reduction of the tax burden (mainly for SMEs), partial payment of wages to employees in the event of their liberation, preferential loans (government guarantee lowered the interest).
458 among the investigated enterprises, 4% are big business, 21% to secondary and 75% to small and micro-businesses. 37% of the enterprises localized in Kiev, 63% represent different regions of Ukraine.