The failure of the Moscow talks for a truce in Libya, reiterated that Moscow has in the middle East, no vital interests, believes Konstantin Eggert.
The failure of the Moscow talks on Libya has clearly become for the Kremlin by surprise. There’s a sigh of relief after still not started the us-Iran war (which would have ended the military-political disaster for the Tehran of the mullahs). On an urgent meeting of January 11, Vladimir Putin persuaded Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel), which, together with the President of Turkey, Erdogan they will be able to resolve the Libyan crisis.
The mysterious departure of the Haftarot
Moscow sent to fight on the side of General Khalifa the Haftarot several hundred mercenaries from PMC Wagner, I was sure that I could persuade the “client” not only to declare a ceasefire, but to sign a truce with the UN recognized the national consensus Government in Tripoli headed by Faiz by Sarraj. It controls Western Libya and General Haftar with his Libyan national army – Eastern. The delegation Saraga the draft armistice agreement was signed. General first said that will give the answer on the morning of 14 January, but then just flew away from Moscow.
The official version of the Haftarah is this: the government Sarada has not provided a clear timetable for the disarmament of the number of its paramilitary forces. I guess that’s an excuse. The fact that, in addition to official Russia, General support Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Most likely, some of these sponsors believed that the Haftarot can still win in the Libyan civil war, or what concessions people Saraga insufficient.
For Moscow the real reasons are not so important. Significantly different: 76-year-old Libyan field commander, long-time graduate of the Frunze Academy and the American citizen, believes that he owes to Putin and Lavrov. He is playing on several chessboards, collects, as befits a field commander, a tribute from territory under their control, plus, I believe, receives a lot of funding from rich Saudis and the UAE. And the fact that the Kremlin now looks palely in the eyes of Merkel, Erdogan, EU, and middle Eastern rulers, it doesn’t matter.
Haftarot greater important to understand that it will take now the Turkish President, who supports the government in Tripoli and has already sent to Libya “military advisers”. Erdogan promised to deal with the “coup of the Haftarah”. If Ankara decides to send to Libya regular army troops, what the President of Turkey begs Sarraj, the situation for Moscow would be quite breath-taking. Just a few days ago, Putin and Erdogan opened a gas pipeline “Turkish stream” – and now they are on different sides of the Libyan barricades.
What achieves in Libya Putin
For what? – a separate issue. If in Russia the head of state was accountable to someone, it would make sense to ask. And so we can only assume that, firstly, Putin’s “pacification” of Libya – a kind of compensation decisions by President Medvedev in 2011 not to interfere with Western operations in Libya, which was followed by the first civil war, split the country and terrible death of Muammar Gaddafi. In the Kremlin consider that the intervention in the Libyan situation, but still on the side of the ardent antiislamist Haftorah, will further raise the prestige of official Russia on the background of the successful rescue of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Second, in the Kremlin hope that in case of victory or at least a draw in the civil war, the General will give the Russian Navy and videoconferencing base on the Libyan coast. In addition to the next flick on the nose of the Americans, its construction would provide the rich with government contracts a lot of good and respected people in Moscow, in uniform and without.
Thirdly, in the case of the civil war, the Russian oil and gas state-owned company, working in Libya under Gaddafi, I hope to return to the country. Strictly speaking, to a real Russian interests at least some has only this one third goal. Although, again, not news, and that the ineffectiveness and corruption in the public and parapublic business in Russia about the national interest allows us to say with very great reservations.
The real interests of the Russian companies are in very specific areas. This development of strategy in relation to China and its growing expansion in Central Asia; a decent and honest end to the conflict with Ukraine; the development of normal interaction with the main trading partner of Russia – the European Union; the resumption of normal dialogue on the nuclear issue; the country out of isolation and the creation of normal investment climate.
The salvation of middle Eastern dictatorships and participation in foreign civil wars of the priorities of Russian foreign policy not apply.
As in the recent crisis around Iran, the failed Libyan talks in Moscow demonstrated the limits of regional influence of Moscow. Even if Putin promised Merkel to the Berlin conference on Libya will take place, the damage is already done.
Khalifa Haftar knows exactly what he wants – money and power. And if the path to this goal affected the prestige of the “Russian partners”, who supply him with mercenaries, but rejoice in someone else, then so be it. You cannot please everyone. It’s in the middle East will notice and will consider the future of everything from Casablanca to Tehran.