“Revival” coronavirus: is the world waiting for the second wave of the pandemic

"Возрождение" коронавируса: Действительно ли мир ждет вторая волна пандемии

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned that in Europe there are signs of the “second wave” of coronavirus. But is it really so, what is the evidence and whether to look out for?

In recent months, the “second wave” of the spread of coronavirus infection was a regular newsworthy information to the media. Expect it in the fall, and some people already began to count, will survive these or other businesses if everywhere will announce a lockdown.

In any case, Europe is preparing for the second wave.

“Constant new outbreak of the disease make it increasingly real prospect of re-imposition of restrictive measures. And all this is happening when millions of people went on vacation and travel Europe”, – stated in the material The Guardian.

For example, consultative authority for health in Germany, the Robert Koch Institute, said that “deeply concerned” by the increase in the number of infected in recent weeks. After five weeks of hesitation between 300 and 400 new cases a day the number had risen to 800. In the midst of the pandemic in Germany were recorded over 6 thousand cases a day.

In France, the Minister of health called for vigilance after a sharp rise in cases Covid-19 among young people.

In Catalonia, the authorities said that some measures, Talon can again return if ten days is not enough to take the local situation under control. The fact that over the past two weeks there has registered 8 million new infections and half of all cases identified during this period in Spain..

In Greece are going to introduce the compulsory wearing of masks on the face, not only in supermarkets but also in other enclosed spaces. All due to the fact that the number of infections in the country continues to grow. Greek government spokesman Stelios Petsas noted that the wearing of masks in churches is mandatory – it is only a matter of time.

The Prime Minister of Belgium Sophie Wilmes announced a series of additional restrictive measures, but said that a second full quarantine may be inevitable.

“If we can’t reduce performance, it will be a collective failure, said Wilmes at a press conference after a meeting of the Council of national security of the country. Experts say that you can avoid another block. But we must remember that even the world’s leading scientists don’t know how the situation will develop.”.

In Brazil also registered a record number of confirmed cases and related deaths. According to the Ministry of health, as of 29 July was 69 074 new cases and 1595 deaths. However, despite the growing number of patients that Brazil has managed to resume international flights for foreign tourists, which has been banned since March and, it seems, does not consider the possibility of a new lockdown, according to SAF.

Vietnam, which for months has been “coronavirus lull”, received the next wave: on July 29, the state media reported new cases in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh city and the Central highlands, which were somehow connected with the recent outbreak in the Central city of da Nang.

The country’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc said that the current wave of infections is different from the second wave, with which Vietnam fought in March. In Hanoi, capital of Vietnam, ordered the closure of bars and pubs and forbade carrying out mass actions on June 29.

Meanwhile, the number of cases of coronavirus in Africa exceeded $ 890 thousand, and who are concerned about too “relaxed” security measures on the continent.

Negative results for Ukraine: for the day of 29 July coronavirus disease COVID-19 confirmed 1 197 people is a new record. However, whether the virus is gaining new strength?

Family doctor Natalia Artemenko sure now about any second wave said, and the growth of infection that we see as we do, and in the world – a consequence of negligence, imprudence and non-compliance with quarantine regulations.

“When you are sitting at home – the spread was kept. And now, even the mask – it’s like the entrance ticket in the bus. In transport dressed, went to the beach for example, was removed. And there is a crowd all on each other and lie neglected security measures. Antiseptics, caution in touching the person, respect for social distance – it is nullified. People spit on their own safety, and that is why we are seeing increasing cases. With the mutation of the virus, the second wave is now nothing to do,” says the doctor.

But the second wave is preparing very seriously consider the prospects of a new quarantine regimes in one form or another.

However, what we could have meant by “second wave”? Stephen Evans, Professor of pharmacoepidemiology from the London school of hygiene and tropical medicine, said: “as far As I know, there are no agreed definitions regarding the “second wave”, and if they were, I suspect, these signs would not be easy to distinguish”.

“A significant part of views about the second wave originates from previous influenza epidemics and pandemics, and patterns may not be the same for COVID-19 – SARS-Cov-2. It is very different from other infections”, according to the SkyNews.

Well, there is one good news and one bad.

Good that the second wave in a sense, as re-surge of similar magnitude may not be. Bad – this does not negate the first wave, which continues today, and not make the situation safer.

Margaret Harris from the world health organization has made clear that what we see is “one big wave”, which is distributed worldwide, the BBC reports.

Some countries have been able to smooth out that wave at the beginning – these include South Korea and Singapore. It was done through a comprehensive testing modes and tracking.

In other countries – the UK, France, Spain and Italy – to moderate wave did later, entering the quarantine facility. Statistically smoothed peak using the lockdown was a success and Ukraine – however, due to the low proliferation of testing, we can’t operate really exact data.

But today there are signs that cases are gaining momentum, especially in Spain.

But instead of talking about the second wave, to better perceive the dynamics as the only existing attack that breaks through the protective fencing.

Professor Paul hunter, an expert of Covid from Norwich medical school, said that for the emergence of the second wave of the virus should disappear, so the current situation he proposes to call “revival.”

However, despite the fact that the number of cases may increase, the figures are far from those levels seen at the peak of the pandemic.

The number of infections varies depending on location – there are countries and regions where transmission is virtually absent, and there are countries with high rates.

There are signs that the coronavirus in certain areas extends youth. In particular, such opinion was sounded by the regional Director Hans Kluge. Young people get sick less and generally feel more relaxed in enforcing safety rules. However, while this statement exists at the level of hypothesis.

Experts have concluded that there is also a link with the needs of resources – where people live in close proximity to each other and closely in contact, the likelihood of transmission increases. And now whatever may have been the reasons for these local outbreaks is likely the last time they will continue.

Professor Keith Neal, an expert on infectious diseases at the University of Nottingham, says that these bursts will become a way of life, but they “in no case” will not be a second wave, reports the BBC.

Countries across Europe “learn to live” with the virus, taking such precautionary measures as social distancing and the wearing of masks, and, according to Neal, if people will remain vigilant, in combination with improved treatment and a more thorough testing, the scope of deaths that are observed during peaks, it is hoped, will not be repeated.

It seems that there is a high probability that in the near future we will reap the fruits of the first wave that will be felt in fragments. However, the second wave it will not.

The government