In the United States has prepared a draft law, which needs to overcome the energy impact of Russia on Europe. The idea has already been supported in the House of representatives, in the near future it can be approved by the Senate and then signed by the President, Donald trump.
The decision voted amid preparation for the launch of “Nord stream-2”, endangering the security of not only Ukraine, but also throughout Europe. What does this mean and is there a threat to the project “Gazprom” – understood OBOZREVATEL.
In the United States has issued a new law aimed against Russian expansion in Europe;
The idea is primarily concerned with the protection energy of Europe, it is in the States can give financing;
The experts say: almost with 100% certainty we can say that the largest project of the Russian Federation and the EU “Nord stream-2” will be launched in 2020;
In this situation, Europe is becoming more dependent on Russian energy, but on the other hand, will benefit financially;
Ukraine should prepare for such a course of events and minimize economic losses. In many ways, the construction of “SP-2” is a geopolitical issue, Ukraine right on him until you can.
Accepted in the United States
A majority of the votes of the lower house of Congress voted for the bill to deal with the energy influence of Russia on the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. According to its authors, the US is obligated to help the European countries to reduce dependence on Russian energy.
To provide European countries with diplomatic and political support;
To sponsor individual projects in the energy sector. The Americans are ready to allocate up to $ 1 billion. We are talking about private projects that could replace Russian gas;
To allocate $ 5 million for assistance to the countries of Europe in the matter of recruitment of additional staff.
Indeed, the dependence of European countries on Russian energy is visible to the naked eye. Open data for the year 2016, the share of Russian natural gas is over 60% in Germany and 65% in Poland, 59% in Turkey, 38% in Italy and 37% in France. De facto, all the key players in the European Union on average is half dependent on gas supplies from Russia.
The adopted draft law largely aims to destroy not only the political influence of Russia on Europe (by progress through business interests, including the legalization of the war in Ukraine), but also economic cooperation with Germany and other countries.
“Nord stream-2” is under attack?
While the main battles in the European energy market revolved around the controversial project “SP-2”. It is the largest joint project of Russian and German over the past decades. He doesn’t face any economic sanctions, nor the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine, nor the opposition of the United States.
The fact that a gas pipeline is largely beneficial for the Europeans, especially Germany. Director of consulting company East European Gas Analysis Michael Korchemkin in the comments DWпояснил, the benefits of the project will receive the German roboparty that under the terms of the contract in any case receive his Commission.
The advantage will be German government, which will receive a technically safe pipe and a monopoly on transit. However, in General, the expert sees a political dimension in the project. It is sometimes superior in many ways economic.
“In General necessary in the “Nord stream-2″ Mikhail Korchemkin not see: available capacities allow, according to his calculations, and no new pipes to deliver to Germany to 133 billion cubic meters of gas, while in 2017 Russia exported at least 54 billion. The demand in the near future will not show strong dynamics, I’m sure Korchemkin, so he believes the project is not commercial, but political,” – concludes the publication.
The gas pipeline “Nord stream-2” will be held on the Baltic sea, connecting suppliers in Russia customers in Europe. Its length will be more than 1.2 thousand km capacity – 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The two branches of the pipeline should be built until the end of 2019.
According to the Director of the Institute of energy research Dmitry Marunich, USA don’t and can’t do anything significant. At the current amounts and interests from the big players, the bill of the lower house looks sluggish. While Germany, in turn, by the mouth of German Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly said that the project will be completed.
“It’s insignificant in terms of the amounts of the decision. The issue price (the Functioning of “Nord stream-2″. – Ed.) billions of dollars, and they produce 5 million for technical support to diversify… It’s not a new story, because a few years ago was developed the package of sanctions against Russia, Iran and other countries, and he also supposed such actions. Nothing new, this is a continuation of the policy of the State Department the impact on the EU and Russia, and soft methods”, – said the expert.
In the United States is not giving up. At least not in public. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo has previously called on American oil and gas producers to cooperate with Washington to promote national interests worldwide and to punish Russia.
“We don’t want our European allies have fallen into dependence on Russian gas thanks to the project “Northern stream-2″, just as we would not want to depend on oil supply from Venezuela,” said Pompeo.
Partially “blow” Russia suffered in the first half of March, when Congress published a draft law on the LNG projects. Prescribed sanctions after approval by the President can be imposed against the investment in Russian LNG projects (liquefied natural gas) outside the territory of the country.
The fact that the United States recent years, in addition to political and economic isolation of Russia, are actively promoting energy shale gas. According to preliminary estimates of experts, theoretically the US can extract shale gas until the year 2100 (proven reserves of more than 20 trillion cubic meters), with current figures. And billions of dollars, and also the necessity of finding new markets. In particular, and European.
From the point of view of economic competition is considering this step and international relations Andrew Buzarov. He believes that the US cannot impose reciprocal sanctions against Germany, or other members of the “SP-2”, so try to look for an alternative. Including such initiatives that can bring down the political and business activity of the Russian monopoly “Gazprom”.
How will it affect Ukraine
Sharply negative attitude of the US to “SP-2” and the counter tube is extremely beneficial for our country. And this bill is largely demonstrates the serious attitude of the Americans to deepen German-Russian relations.
However, in addition to political and diplomatic nuances, Ukraine has a huge gas transport system, through which Russia supplies gas to Europe. Accordingly, for the transit we get a lot of money. The new pipe, as they say in Russian “Gazprom” will allow to reduce transit through Ukraine to 10-15 billion cubic meters per year.
This can totally destroy the Ukrainian gas transportation system, which is one of the largest in Europe. At the end of 2019, the contract between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine on gas transit ends.
Annually the country receives more than $ 3 billion from Russia for the fact that her blue fuel passes through Ukraine.
By estimations of Minister of energy Igor Nasalik if every year the volume of transit will be less than 40 billion cubic meters. m, then the CTA will no longer make money. On the contrary to maintain it in working condition will have to pay. The Ministry of Finance has estimated that losses from the collapse of the Ukrainian gas transportation system can be 2-3% of GDP.
With greater probability, already from 2020, Russia and Germany will exchange energy directly. In this situation, Ukraine should first and foremost prepare their economies to such circumstances.
“From Ukraine of special preparation for life after 2020 is not conducted. Position of power – we are waiting for approval from the United States in respect of the project. The position of the Pro-Russian opposition to engage in dialogue with Russia and to look for other options,” – says the situation Andrew Buzarov.