In may, the loans showed the most significant decline among the other credit segments in the previous month, in terms of volume has increased more than two times.
Banks hope that in close to the same level as last year and the growth will continue until the end of the summer. However, experts believe that the loans will recover heavier than the other segments and it may need considerable time.
According to United credit Bureau (OKB; features including data Bank), in may, citizens took 28.2 thousand loans of 22.4 billion rubles. Thus, the number and volume of loans compared to April, increased more than two times. Slowed markedly and the drop in performance of year-to-year. If the APR loans cars fell by 79% in quantity and 80% in volume (see “Kommersant” on June 2), at the end of may, the drop was 49% and 52%, respectively.
While OKB captures the decrease in the average check – in may it hardly exceeded 773 thousand rubles., a decrease compared to April by 3%. Compared to pre-crisis March, a decline of almost 15%.
The largest banks in the portfolio of autocredits also noted a significant increase of disbursements in may: VTB – twice, in Cetelem-Bank – 2.4 times, in Rusfinans-Bank – 2.5 times. In Sovcombank noted that by the end of may gave about 6.5 thousand loans totaling RUB 4 billion, so he actually took more than a quarter of the market. Thus, in VTB say:
“One of the main factors that allowed to significantly restore the demand for loans after a period of self-isolation, was the program of state support with a ten percent discount from the cost of a new vehicle.”
Bankers point out that growth accelerated at the end of the month. The General Director of OKB Arthur A. binds to a sharp increase in the issuing of loans with the weakening of quarantine measures in the regions, including those bordering with Moscow, which led to higher availability of showrooms and implementation of pent-up demand. The decrease in the average amount of loans (over two months – more than 100 thousand rubles), according to him, “due to the reduction of the share of loans with a minimum initial contribution and growth with a large down payment after banks tightening lending policies”. The statistics could be affected by regional factor: the most expensive cars sold in Moscow and St. Petersburg, as these cities acted in the most rigid quarantine measures, which led to the partial inaccessibility of dealers, adds Mr. A. (see Kommersant dated 29 April).
Part of the bankers are optimistic of a recovery in demand to the level of last year in the near future.
“In June, is expected to increase more than half, which means that the indicators are very close to the previous year,” predicts VTB. Director of Department of crediting of Rusfinans-Bank Alexey Borodavin expects “demand to the end of June will be substantial, perhaps at the level of the same period of 2019,” to the end of summer “positive sales will continue.”
However, there is a careful assessment that the full market recovery will take considerable time. In Cetelem Bank believe that “in June the market will be 75-80% from last year”, and volume recovery is expected in the fourth quarter of this or the beginning of 2021, and that the “subject to stable macroeconomic situation in the country and the world.” “Car sales and pre-pandemic were below their historical peaks, in contrast to real estate and retail, that influenced car loans – the CEO Frank RG Yuri Gribanov. – The ratio of income to the cost of the car has deteriorated in recent years due to the appreciation of the dollar.” P
about to him, also expect another increase in prices, that the decline in incomes will lead to increased average life of the car, since it is the goods not the first necessity.
“In this regard, new car sales will decline, and the loans will be harder to recover than other segments,” concludes Mr. Gribanov.