Scientists have determined the conditions under which the second wave COVID-19 inevitable

Ученые определили, при каких условиях вторая волна COVID-19 неизбежна

However, if you continue to adhere to at least some of the conditions of quarantine, a new outbreak of disease will only slightly delay.

The second wave of the pandemic coronavirus begins with a probability of 97% if you cancel all the measures of quarantine within two weeks from the day when it is not recorded any new case of infection.

This conclusion, according to Newsweek, came the authors of the study conducted in Wuhan. It was there that began the current pandemic COVID-19. Under these conditions, the outbreak will take place within 34 days after the abolition of all controls. If, however, certain restrictions will still be saved, the risk reduces to 32%. And the onset of the disease is expected within 42 days. Scientist Shinji Hao of University of technology and Sciences Gwion has published the findings of their study in the journal Nature.

His team used data from the city of Wuhan to create a model to study the dynamics of the pandemic COVID-19 from the first of January to the eighth of March. The data also included information about 32,5 thousand laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with coronavirus from 8 December 2019 until March 8, 2020. Scientists have divided this period into five segments, according to certain events and actions of the authorities, which influenced the spread of the disease. The model also took into account various factors including the spread of the virus people who have had no symptoms, the level of infectivity of the virus and freedom of movement of people.

On 23 January the authorities closed the city of Wuhan, prohibiting entry and exit, a gathering of people. While people with milder symptoms were ordered to stay home under quarantine. Until February 2, all residents of Wuhan was forced to stay at home. And people who have discovered coronavirus as well as all with whom they came in contact, were isolated. From 17 to 19 February, the special workers went from door to door and checking people for symptoms.

Scientists came to the conclusion that about 87% of cases in March passed quietly. Quite possibly, it occurred because infected not have any symptoms, or was, but soft. The study also revealed that the outbreak can be controlled if you follow the precautions, in particular, to wear masks, to comply with social distancing and quarantine of the people who had contact with patients. Total measures of controlling the disease in Wuhan has reduced the overall level of infection in the city is 96% on 8 March.

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Covid
Quarantine
Coronavirus
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Wuhan

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