“Research shows that almost every second infection with Sars-CoV-2 goes unnoticed for the sick, but can infect others. Is it possible, in spite of this, to contain the pandemic?”, – asks the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung.
“What proportion of these “silent patients”, still known only approximately. The study by California scientists shows that approximately every second infection with Sars-CoV-2 goes unnoticed for the sick. Today it is also known that infectious people can be suffering from asymptomatic and those with symptoms of the disease appear. Research does show that in the period between exposure and onset of symptoms people are particularly contagious. Therefore, measures to contain the pandemic must not only focus on obvious patients. “Even if all symptomatic cases are isolated, can be a strong outbreak of the disease”, warn scientists from the University of California at Berkeley in the scientific journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“When many countries removed restrictions to enhance the economic and cultural life, reasonable strategy to identify all cases of infection is essential. Therefore, the California scientists have created two model calculations, which they included as people with symptoms of the disease, and asymptomatic patients. In two scenarios the researchers believe that due to the lack of symptoms does not remain isolated in 17.9% and 30.8% of all infected.”
“The results show that the majority of cases of transmission of the virus accounts for asymptomatic patients, or because they are predictive of the stage of the disease or because the disease is asymptomatic at them”.
“Even if only 17,9% of all infected have no symptoms (data are based on the study of a disease outbreak on a cruise ship Diamond Princess), they account for more than every second case of transmission of the virus. Much more contagious, however, are people who then manifest the symptoms (48%), while asymptomatic patients may cause only 3.4% of further infections. If scientists assumed the presence of 30.8% of asymptomatic infected, as was reported in another study, the number of cases further transmission of the virus is almost unchanged (47% and 6.6%).
“From their calculations, scientists concluded that it is necessary to identify and isolate at least a third of all “silent” infections to determined to stop the spread of the virus. They stress “the urgency of enhancing screening suspicious asymptomatic cases”. According to Californian scientists, it is also necessary to significantly improve the contact tracing,” reports Süddeutsche Zeitung.