The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the main projected macro indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine for the years 2020-2022.
The forecast was developed according to the scenario, which is based on the analysis of the development of the domestic economy in 2016-2018, the current economic situation, assumptions that take into account the influence of external and internal factors, based on forward estimates of development of Ukraine’s economy in the years 2020-2022, both in General and by sectors of the economy.
This scenario is a continuation of the first scenario of the forecast set in the State budget of Ukraine for 2019, and is aimed at creating favourable conditions for the achievement of Ukraine’s sustainable economic growth and improve the welfare of the population.
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Scenario of development of economy of Ukraine suggests two possibilities.
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Under option 1 in 2020, the projected GDP growth of 3.3 percent in 2021 3.8% in 2022 is 4.1%. The rise in consumer prices (December to December of the previous year) is expected to reach 6% in 2020, and 5.7% at 2021 and 5.3% in 2022.
Under alternative 2 in 2020, the projected GDP growth of 3.6% in 2021 – by 3.6%, in 2022 – 3.3%. The rise in consumer prices (December to December of the previous year) is expected to reach 6.5% in 2020 and 7.1% in 2021, 7% in 2022.
The deficit of Ukraine’s trade balance will increase from $13,78 billion in 2020 to $14,92 billion in 2021 and $16,11 billion in 2022. The document suggests the second scenario of macroeconomic indicators on 2020-2022 gg, which carries higher risks, however, and it involves the growth of the trade deficit from $13.96 billion in 2020 to $15,60 billion in 2021 and $17.25 billion in 2022.
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The decree specifies that the trade balance is defined by balance of payments methodology, according to which, in 2018, the deficit rose to $11,29 billion from $to 8.64 billion a year earlier.
The new forecast of the growth of the trade deficit is projected primarily due to a slightly higher rate of increase of imports compared to exports. In particular. in the first scenario: in 2020, respectively 8% and 7.6% in 2021 to 7.1% and 6.9% in 2022 is 7.3% and 7.1%.
According to the document, in the baseline scenario the unemployment rate (according to methodology of the International labour organization) in Ukraine will be moderately reduced in 2020 to 8.1% in 2021 to 8% in 2022 to 7.9% compared to 8.9% previously laid in the forecast for the current year. According to the pessimistic scenario, the unemployment rate in Ukraine will remain in the next three years at 8.6-8.7 percent.