Named as a possible forecast of the economy up to 2024 in the case of the second wave
The government called the alternative scenarios of development of economy of Ukraine, taking account of the implications of the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19. In addition to the baseline scenario considering both optimistic and critical.
About it reported in a press-service of the Cabinet.
The optimistic scenario assumes rapid overcoming of the spread of coronavirus infection. A crisis is the deployment of the second wave of the spread of coronavirus infection or even the global financial and economic crisis.
So, an alternative crisis scenario development is based on assumptions about the deployment of the second wave of the pandemic in 2021, and, as a consequence, the entry of the world economy into a protracted recession.
In this scenario, the projected fall in GDP in 2021 at the level of 5-7 percent, followed by moderate average growth for the period 2022-2024 years at 2.5 percent annually (in the baseline scenario is 4.6%, respectively).
It is expected that less than 50 per cent of migrants will go back to work outside of Ukraine. The labour market (unemployment) will grow. Projected low levels of investment and consumption that will enable us to reach dependency level, and slowing of the rate of increase in exports. The budget deficit will grow.
In the optimistic scenario, the projected rapid economic growth starting in 2021, which will end in 2024 to exceed the level of development 2019 17.4 percent (in the baseline scenario by 12.7 percent). The average for the period 2021-2024 years, GDP growth is projected at 5.4 percent per year, with accelerated growth to 6.5 percent in 2024 (in the baseline scenario on average by 4.3 percent with the growth of GDP by 4.5 percent in 2024).
Also predict that more than 90 percent of migrants go back to work outside of Ukraine. The labour market (unemployment) will decrease and will be released on dependency level. It is expected a rapid increase in the volume of investment, consumption and exports. The budget deficit will be reduced and will be released on dependency level.
At the same time, the government has called the possibility of deploying alternative scenarios. Thus, the probability of execution of the optimistic scenario consider a moderate (about 30%), while the crisis call is unlikely.
Earlier, Premier Denis Shmigel said that the growth of Ukraine’s economy is expected in the second half of 2020.
According to the IMF forecast, the Ukrainian economy for the pandemic coronavirus will reach the pre-crisis level until 2023 – 2024, and the growth of Ukrainian GDP in the coming years will be about 4%.