Because of the hurricane “Dorian” the US President will come to Poland for commemorative events marking the outbreak of the Second world war. The decision trump called in Warsaw a strong disappointment.
Warsaw is overwhelmed with bitterness and disappointment. For several weeks the ruling Polish national-conservative party “Law and justice” (ZIS) was proudly preparing for the visit of US President Donald trump. On 1 September, the White house had to take part in a memorial ceremony in connection with the 80th anniversary of the outbreak of the Second world war
However, on 29 August, three days before the event, trump suddenly canceled his trip. The American leader explained his decision by the need to focus on preparing for the storm “Dorian”, which is close to the coast of the United States. Instead of trump in the Polish capital will go Vice-President Mike Pence.
Representatives of Russia at the ceremony will not be
The refusal of the President of the United States from participating in the ceremony was to Polish authorities a very unpleasant surprise. “The presence of trump would have for us very important from the point of view of lighting Polish history” – admitted Wojciech Konarski, state Secretary of the office of the President of Poland Adzheya Duda. The international media paid to visit trump’s attention that would have let the world know about the troubled history of the country, who became the first victim of the Second world war, said Kolarski.
However, the President of the United States was not the only world leader invited to the event. The ceremony is still planning to participate, the President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Frank-Walter Steinmeier) and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel). So the Polish authorities demonstrate that they see their political allies exclusively in the West. Representatives of Russia at the ceremony was not invited.
On the same page with trump
It should be noted that the relations between the Western partners, too, are not without controversy. So, German-Polish relations are overshadowed by the requirements of Poland’s reparations for the damage caused during the war. At the same time, Warsaw and Washington share many common views and approaches, for example, on migration or in relation to the gas pipeline “Nord stream-2”.
However, the government of Poland, warn observers, should be prepared for the fact that the conflict with the European Commission concerning the Polish judicial reform will sooner or later become unpleasant topic of the negotiations in Washington. The most important thing for Warsaw security provided by America, not Europe.
Security provides America
“Needless to say, we are looking for partners who are able to use military force, that is ready to implement article 5 of the NATO Charter,” – said in an interview with DW, Beata górka-winter, a political scientist from the state-funded Polish Institute of international Affairs (PISM). She believes the fiction of the principle of collective security of NATO laid down in this article, “if it is not is a real military force”.
The United States through military capabilities are the only country in case of danger can rely on, says górka-winter. At the same time European NATO partners, she said, has repeatedly shown its incompetence. The last time it demonstrated their inability to establish a unified European army.
The price of security for Warsaw
The greatest threat to its security, according to Warsaw, comes from the Eastern neighbor – Russia. Since the beginning of the conflict in the East of Ukraine, Poland has spent billions of euros on upgrading its army. Thus Polish “love for America” received a financial embodiment.
In 2018, Poland has concluded the largest in its history, a deal for the purchase of weapons, deciding to acquire U.S. anti-missile complexes “Patriot” for 4,75 billion dollars. In February of this years Warsaw has ordered 20 American jet systems of volley fire Himars in the amount of $ 365 million. Currently negotiating the purchase of 32 multi-role fighters F-35.
Poland wants to “Fort trump”
Donald trump regularly praises Poland for the fact that she is one of the few NATO countries that perform the request of the Alliance on the allocation of at least 2 percent of GDP for defense needs. By 2030, the government in Warsaw is planning to increase military spending to 2.5 percent of GDP.
In addition, Poland is trying to use money to increase the American contingent in the country. Now there are 4,500 American military personnel stationed there on a rotating basis. After the Russian annexation of Ukrainian Crimea three NATO battalion was stationed in the Baltic States.
The project, which President Andrzej Duda called “Fort trump,” Poland is ready to spend up to $ 2 billion. The government wanted American troops were based in it on a permanent, not rotational basis. Donald trump did not rule out the placement in Poland of another thousand American soldiers who can be redeployed from Germany. Currently, Germany is 35 thousand US military.
The strengthening of the Eastern flank of NATO contrary to the opinion of Russia
Critics of these plans see them as a violation of the Founding act NATO-Russia from 1997, according to which the Alliance pledged not to deploy troops along the Russian border on a regular basis. However, Beata górka-winter believes this strengthening of the Eastern flank of NATO needs, even if it is not like Russia.
In her opinion, there is nothing worse than passivity in relations with Russia. “Already fixed Russian violations of airspace and sea borders of other countries. If we continue to do nothing, such actions on the part of Moscow will become more frequent,” warns the analyst.
The strategy to split the EU
America often pays special attention to those EU countries that have difficult relations with Brussels. Behind this may lie the U.S. strategy aimed at splitting EU indicates Piotr Buras, head of Warsaw office of the European Council on foreign relations (ECFR). Buras also criticized the Polish “pursuit of the American Fata Morgana”, which threatens cooperation in Europe.
“Poland could actively participate in the development of the European project. However, the problem is that our gaze is directed in the opposite direction,” – said Buras. As an example, he cited which caused a mixed reaction conference on Iran, which Poland had organized a filing with the US in February 2019 in Warsaw and which was boycotted by many European politicians. In addition, he said, poles in 2003 contributed to the split in the EU by supporting the us invasion of Iraq.