The dollar in February: the most optimistic scenario for the last five years

Курс доллара в феврале: самый оптимистический сценарий за последние пять лет

The dollar in February, as analysts predict, will surprise the Ukrainians. What will happen to the dollar and why devalvirovat the national currency – read in this article

In January, the dollar has shown a significant decrease for several consecutive weeks. Economists believe that this is a sustainable trend will continue in February. And there are several reasons.

Ukrainians are already used to that in winter, the dollar soared to highs in previous years the rate was in the range 29 to 30 hryvnia for 1 dollar. 2019 started with the fact that the dollar settled below the psychological level of 28 UAH/$.

Experts believe that the economic reasons for currency shocks is not, therefore, stability in the foreign exchange market will continue. The dollar in February may drop to 27.7 UAH because Ukrainian exporters, which received the proceeds in foreign currency in January, will sell it on the market. With the increase in currency supply will strengthen the hryvnia.

The dollar in February 2019

In addition, traditional factors of decline in the exchange rate are approaching the deadline for paying tax, the end of the Christmas holidays. Decrease in quotations in the interbank trading will lead to a depreciation of the USD.

According to the optimistic scenario, the dollar in February may reach the level of 27 UAH/$ by the end of winter. More pessimistic scenarios imply a fluctuation in the range 27,5-28,5 UAH per 1 dollar.

However, none of the experts do not forecast a sharp rise in the exchange rate. And the reason is – already political. It is clear that before the presidential elections in March, the national Bank will maintain the hryvnia, and not to let it devalue.

In the long term, the hryvnia, there is also reason to strengthen. This can be facilitated by the ban on foreign currency settlements on the territory of Ukraine, which was introduced by the new law. The demand for the currency as a result, should decrease, which will lead to the fall of quotations on the interbank market.

The dollar in February 2019

According to forecasts, in 2019, the average rate of the dollar against the hryvnia will be from of 28.65 to 29.08. In the budget 2019 laid the dollar 29,4 UAH/$.

Analysts see no reasons for the devaluation of the hryvnia in the near future. The NBU has managed to make a record for the last 5 years, the currency reserves. The hryvnia may weaken only as a result of the collapse of prices on external commodity markets. Also a course may affect the payment of the external debt of Ukraine.

Курс доллара в феврале: самый оптимистический сценарий за последние пять лет

Курс доллара в феврале: самый оптимистический сценарий за последние пять лет