The Fund “Democratic initiatives name Ilka Kucheriv”, Kyiv international Institute of sociology and Razumkov Center jointly implement the “national exit poll 2019”. As the Director of Fund “Democratic initiatives behalf of Ilka Kucheriva” Irina Bekeshkina a consortium of these organizations will hold a March 31, exit polls from the polling stations. The project will be supervised by a Supervisory Board, composed of leaders of public organizations, leading Ukrainian experts and journalists.
“Exit polls in Ukraine have a special role and special importance. This is a necessary condition not a late-night talk show, a form of public control over the integrity of the election”, – quotes its “UKRINFORM”.
According to Bekeshkina, the publication of the results of the national exit poll 2019 will be held March 31 in the following scheme:
– 14:00 will hold a press conference dedicated to the current reporting of the progress of the survey respondents at the exit from polling stations, likely issues and difficulties that may arise in the interviewers during data collection;
– at 19:45 scheduled press-conference on which will publish the survey results as of 18:00;
at 23:00 will be a press conference where you announce updated results as at 20:00.
As noted by the General Director of Kiev international Institute of sociology Volodymyr Paniotto, the field phase of the study to undertake two leading accompanime – KIIS and Razumkov Center. The sample is two-stage. First, in four regions (West, Center, East, South) choose the number of segments in accordance with the percentage of voters in this area. The plots themselves will be elected at random. The second stage will be to question voters at the exit polls with a certain step of the selection process. Results several times a day will be transmitted to the Central office of the sociological companies.
“Based on experience from previous years, in my opinion, even if we have planned margin of error is 2.5% and the data will differ by less than 4-5%, then we can’t say that is signs of tampering. Of course, if the time difference exceeds the 4-5%, then it will be very suspicious, although in this case, the exit poll could be an indication that something is wrong, but really needs to determine only the court, examined how this happened and why there was such a difference,” said Paniotto.
Director of the sociological service of the Razumkov Center Andriy Bychenko noted that to apply the methodology of “secret ballot”, since it reduces the number of refusals and considerably increases reliability of the exit poll data. Respondent himself to fill in the paper questionnaire themselves and throws it in the drawer of the exit poll.
“It is important that the interviewer will not know, replied the Respondent. And if in some region for some areas to be pressure on voters, our methodology allows the Respondent to not be afraid of this pressure, because his answer will not be known. We hope that this will affect the sincerity of the respondents and the objectivity of our data,” said Bychenko.