The rate of national currency on Friday, August 7, is held in the range 27,65-27-85 hryvnia to the dollar, despite the message that Ukraine’s GDP in I half of 2020 fell 6.5%
We will remind, in January-June reduction in the composite production index of 7.7% (7.3% in Jan-may), and consequently, the decline in GDP estimated by the government at 6.5% (11% in the second quarter of 2020 for the second quarter of 2019), which is somewhat less than previously expected.
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“In April the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine introduced changes to the state budget, according to which this year’s GDP will fall by 3.9% instead of the projected growth by 3.7%, inflation will be 8.7% instead of 5.5%, the hryvnia exchange rate is 29.5 per dollar instead of the previously projected 27 hryvnia for one dollar. The budget deficit lies in the amount of 298 billion hryvnia (about $ 11 billion), or 7.5% of GDP,” – said in comments Delo.ua head of Department of Analytics GK Forex Club Andrey Shevchishin.
Negative for the market analyst also finds record levels of infections and mortality from Covid-19.
Also Shevchishin notes that the pressure on the hryvnia continues to provide non-residents closing their positions in hryvnia government bonds. “Given the maturity of 16 billion hryvnia this week is probably liquidity pressure on the exchange rate,” he says.
According to Shevchishin, the news about the accusation the U.S. justice Department Igor Kolomoisky and Gennady Bogolyubov in the development of PrivatBank funds and laundering them in the U.S., too, will be evaluated by the market.
“Probably, in the near future, the hryvnia will continue to be in the range of 27.65-27.85 hryvnia per dollar. The demand will come from non-residents, and the NBU will try to keep fluctuations – predicts Shevchishin.
At the same time, for many analysts, the monetary stance of the NBU remains unclear. So, in the comments Delo.ua RoboForex analyst Andrew Golov says: “there is still no clear understanding of what to expect from the monetary policy of the NBU in the future. Previously, the regulator mentioned that the fiscal mechanisms on the hryvnia exchange rate affect not intend to, but there are problems connected with the regulation of the budget, where the U.S. dollar is calculated by 30,00 UAH/USD.
Overall, the strategy of behavior of the regulator depends to a large extent, however, the head of the NBU Kirill Shevchenko still not very located to the clarity of perspectives and plans on the hryvnia exchange rate, preferring to talk about global issues of attraction in the Ukrainian economy to the new flow of investments. This continues to keep the exchange market in tension, which easily could have been avoided”.
Golov suggests that the new “round” of devaluation of the hryvnia will be in the fall or early winter. “Most likely, during these periods, you will see a gradual weakening of the Ukrainian currency against the U.S. in the area of 28,00-29,00 USD/dollar, which will effectively restore the economy after the crisis coronavirus. Strong hryvnia is now significantly complicated these processes. At the same time in the passage of the us dollar to UAH 30.00/USD is unlikely to expect such a scale of the devaluation would be sensitive to the population and foreign exchange savings,” says the analyst.
Friday, August 7, in comparison with Thursday, August 6, the NBU has strengthened the official rate of the national currency against the dollar a little more than 2 pennies – with 27,7028 UAH/USD to 27,6793 UAH/USD.
This is evidenced by the data controller.
The official exchange rate on 7 August:
1 USD – UAH 27,6793;
1 Euro – 32,7972 UAH;
1 Swiss franc 30,4737 UAH;
1 pound – 36,4121 UAH.
On the interbank market on 7 August, the dollar, compared with Thursday, to purchase went up by 1 penny, in – for 2 pennies. On 6 August, the interbank market closed in the range of 27.67/27,69 UAH/USD, and on Friday, August 7, opened in the range of – 27,68/27,71 UAH per dollar.
Euro on the interbank market fell in the purchase of 6 cents, selling at 5 cents. 7 Aug bidding on the Euro started in the range 32,75/AZN 32.78 UAH per Euro. 6 Aug closed at – 32,81/32,83 UAH/EUR.
Under forecasts of dealers, limits on the dollar today will be in the range 27,57-of 27.85 USD/dollar, Euro – 32,53-33,05 UAH/EUR.
The interbank hryvnia sluggish strengthened against the dollar, but in exchange the Euro continues to rise
In the cash market on Friday morning, the average buying rate of dollar was 27,63 UAH/USD. Sell cash dollar at the exchange rate of 27.67 UAH/USD. On Thursday, the dollar bought at the rate 27,63 UAH/USD, sold at the rate of 27,68 USD/dollar. Thus, in the purchase of dollar has not changed, sales fell by 1 penny.
The average rate of purchase/sale of Euro in the first half of the day in the cash market made up of 32.55/32,62 UAH/EUR. On Thursday morning, the Euro was buying at the same rate, were sold more expensive by 3 pennies. The course was of 32.55/32,65 UAH/EUR.
The Verkhovna Rada