The international monetary Fund adjusted its growth forecast for the world economy. Is 3.9% in July, now, according to experts, in 2018 and 2019, we should expect to 3.7 %. The main reason is the trade war between the US and China.
“We always say in the IMF, trade war, customs duties in a global scale is not going to benefit the world economy – says the managing Director of the IMF Christine Lagarde, and often have negative consequences for growth. We continue to adhere to this point of view, and I hope that reason will prevail and that all the players sit down at the negotiating table, come to an agreement concerning improvement of world trade rules”.
The new projections, published in Bali during the annual meeting of the IMF and the world Bank, show that the upward trend as a result of lower taxes in the US and increase demand for imports, is on the wane.
“If the two largest economies in the world with knives, in this situation, all will suffer,” says Maurice Obstfeld, a leading economist of the IMF.
According to calculations of the organization, China’s GDP will decline in 2019 from 1.6% of GDP – 0.9 %. As a result, world GDP will fall by more than 0.8% in 2020.
Other factors revision of growth – the weak performance of the Euro area countries, as well as the reduction of liquidity and the outflow of capital in the markets of developing countries.