The international monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that oil prices in 2019 will cost 13% less than last year. The average price for Brent oil will amount to $ 59,2 per barrel in 2019 and $ 59 in 2020. About it reports “Glavpost” referring to the April review of the IMF’s “world economic Outlook” (World Economic Outlook).
According to the IMF forecast, the average oil price in 2019 will be 13 percent lower than in 2018. Oil prices will remain unchanged in real terms in the medium term. The average price for Brent oil will amount to $ 59,2 per barrel in 2019 and $ 59 in 2020.
As noted in the overview, since the beginning of 2019 the price effect of the reduced supply of oil. In particular, the decline in production in Canada, reducing the supply of OPEC and non-OPEC, as well as forced outages in Venezuela gradually slow the growth of oil production.
“Although the risks are balanced, a substantial uncertainty around the baseline forecasts for oil prices remains due to the high political uncertainty”, – stated in the forecast.
Note that the IMF points to risks of such growth rates, as geopolitical events in the middle East, the unstable political situation in Venezuela, a tougher US position against Iran and Venezuela and the slower than expected production growth in the United States.
IMF experts emphasize that the decline in oil prices may cause the acceleration of output growth in the United States and the disagreement among OPEC countries and countries outside of OPEC.
Trade tensions and other risks to global growth could also affect global demand and lead to lower prices, the IMF said.
As reported UNN, according to the forecast, the NBU, within a few years the price of oil will fluctuate in the range of $ 60 to $ 70 per barrel.