The Ministry of Finance has improved the three-year forecast for the hryvnia to the dollar

Минфин улучшил трехлетний прогноз по курсу гривны к доллару

Told when the currency reaches 30 UAH./$.

The Ministry of Finance gave a new and improved forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate over the next four years, according to a macroeconomic review of the Ministry in June. According to the Ministry of Finance, the national currency will be as follows:

  • 2019 – 27.4 hryvnia to the dollar;
  • 2020 – 28,2 hryvnia to the dollar;
  • 2021 – 29,4 hryvnia to the dollar;
  • 2022 – 30 hryvnia per dollar.

Before that, officials had expected at least a strong national currency, and gave less optimistic assessments:

  • 2019 – 28,2 hryvnia to the dollar;
  • 2020 – 29.7 hryvnia to the dollar;
  • 2021 – 30.4 hryvnia to the dollar.

Most likely, the Ministry of Finance was affected by the devastating conclusion of the audit chamber, made public last week. Auditors to the nines smashed the work of government analysts. Due to their incorrect foreign exchange forecasts, according to SP, not running GObject-2019. The plan proceeds to the General Fund of the state budget in January-may were not met by 50.2 bln. Large corporations less earn local currency (strengthening of the national currency).

“The company can maintain the same income in dollars, but because of the low exchange rate, you will have less of the hryvnia. Accordingly, pay less taxes to the state budget”, – explained financial expert Vladislav Kravets.

It should be noted that the expectations Ukrainian officials are markedly different from forecasts, foreign banks, rating agencies and credit institutions.

However, for example, the IMF gives the following predictions:

  • 2019 – 28.7 hryvnia to the dollar;
  • 2020 – 30 hryvnia per dollar;
  • 2021 – 30,5 hryvnia per dollar.

S&P assumes the following course:

  • 2019 – 28.6 hryvnia to the dollar;
  • 2020 – 29,5 UAH per dollar;
  • 2021 – 30 hryvnia per dollar.

But the biggest pessimists were analysts from Morgan Stanley. They talk about the following expectations:

  • 2019 – 31 UAH per dollar;
  • 2020 – 32.5 hryvnia to the dollar.

In addition to the course the Ministry of Finance in its macroeconomic forecast even announced expectations for growth in the minimum wage. For the next four years it will be (today – 4173 UAH.):

  • In 2020 – 4723 UAH;
  • In 2021 – 5003 UAH;
  • In 2022 – 5290 UAH.