The number cured in the early stages is increasing: what to expect for China after the epidemic?

Количество вылеченных от коронавируса растет: чего ждать Китаю после эпидемии?

In China, judging by the official data (which, frankly, matters are not removed) the number of recovered steadily third day exceeds the number of identified cases.

This is not the decline of the epidemic, but it is a positive trend. But now began the “secondary” wave outside of China. And there is just the dynamics of the reverse – in the last days begins a sharp rise in identified cases.

The absolute value of the seemingly small, but the problem of the current epidemic – in a very prolonged incubation period of the disease and a sufficiently long latent period of the disease when it develops without symptoms. Which gives a delayed surge in the incidence. The leader in the “non-Chinese” of the epidemic – in South Korea, but it is already clear that it will soon “catch up” and other countries at the beginning of the region of Southeast Asia, then the rest.

In China begin to launch the enterprise. Again – as far as the correct data, hard to say, but various Chinese leaders assess that about April the main manufacturing will work

The first quarter obviously will be a failure. China’s GDP compared to last year will shrink in the first three months of 1 percent (most optimistic estimates) to 4 – with a negative Outlook. Theoretically by year-end backlog can be made up, but GDP growth this year will be borderline at best. For periuterine debt (with a significant part of them is bad) the financial industry this year will be critical. A number of banks will openly save pouring money. And that means making new debts. The decision is not so hot, but any alternative is worse.

However, there is bad news. China is a country of internal migrants. This is a consequence of chronic Chinese contradictions in the income gap between the coast and the mainland hinterland. Therefore, a significant part of China’s labor resources – this is internal migrants. And while approximately 230 million people of them to work not started. Explanation etmu also quite on the surface – imposed quarantine measures caught many of them at home, where they returned to prazdnovanie Chinese new year. To go to work, they can’t because of the quarantine imposed either at home or at work, or in both places. In addition, there are restrictions on the movement of transport. All together it creates a strange picture – production-start to work, but actually working on them or not, or a serious shortage. And therefore actually begin to abate mainly the management structure of industries, products make is no one.

All of this suggests that a full launch of the production will take place before the abolition of quarantine measures across the country – and that by the most conservative estimates, not before mid-end of April. And then the willingness to re-introduction of the quarantine will remain until at least the end of the first half. Translated into comprehensible this means that the economic situation in China may be much worse than any negative forecastssince they are mostly linear – that is, based on one or two factors without taking into account the relationship with others. A complex and diversified economy is critically dependent on the smooth operation of all sectors, a shortage of at least one strategic component creates a stopping production throughout the chain.

Apparently, the Chinese partners will draw conclusions from the current crisis. The best argument calls trump on the transfer to the territory of the United States of American production than the current epidemic and its consequences, perhaps difficult to think. In addition, there are good economic reasons – China’s competitive advantage – cheap labor – more is not. Wages in China have risen significantly. Strategy for construction companies middle class came to fruition, and the bulk of the Chinese population moved to this prosperity. In Russia – is impossible for the ruling thieves task, the Chinese did just a decade.

But improving the welfare of the population, the Chinese leadership has received a fundamentally different problem – now the attractiveness of China in terms of cost reduction labor cost significantly decreased. If Western corporations will begin to withdraw production from China, the problem of deduction of incomes of the population will face the Chinese leadership to his full height. It’s one thing when people live in habitual poverty, and another thing – when you have to tighten the belt, having lived for some time relatively well. Economic problems will inevitably be added the social, followed by political and. And no digital camp will not help.

It’s hard to say exactly how the Chinese leadership will address the complex growing problem, but one thing is clear – the current model of development has exhausted itself. The epidemic only exacerbated the existing contradictions and squarely puts the vpros on the revision of the whole concept and development strategy of China. Some time it will be possible to pull the current baggage, but it will only prolong the agony, not deciding the underlying contradictions.

Similar crises today are seen around the world. Everywhere the old models no longer work. Everywhere else solved the same question – to hold the current state at any price or to start the search for new solutions. In Russia, for example, the answer is already there – the regime will cling to dead development strategy (or rather call it degradation) by all means, shifting the solution of problems on future generations. “After us the deluge” – is the working concept of existence. Now the same task need to be understood and addressed by the Chinese.