The pandemic is in the early stages of world GDP in 2020 will decrease by 5.2%. This is stated in the world Bank report “global economic Prospects” published on 8 June.
“Pandemic coronavirus and quarantine measures to contain it have had a sudden and massive shock effect on the world economy, plunging her into a deep recession. This recession will be the deepest since the Second world war, and the decline in production per capita will reach the greatest percentage of countries since 1870,” say analysts at the world Bank.
The forecast said that in advanced economies is expected to fall of economic activity by 7%, while emerging market and developing countries by 2.5%. Income per capita is expected to decline this year by 3.6% “and it will plunge millions of people into extreme poverty.”
Baseline forecast of the world Bank based on the assumptions that the epidemic situation will allow the developed economies to cancel due to pandemic coronavirus restrictions by mid-year, and the developing countries – “a little late” and that adverse global implications smoothed out in the second half. In this scenario, the growth of the world economy in 2021 will reach 4.2%.
If events develop according to the pessimistic scenario, this year the world economy can expect a compression of 8%, and then, in 2021, – “sluggish recovery” a little more than 1%.
“This is an extremely sobering forecast: it is highly likely that the current crisis will leave deep scars and cause major global problems. After that the world community should join efforts to find ways of more rapid and sustainable recovery and to prevent further increases in poverty and unemployment,” said Vice-President of the world Bank on issues of equitable growth, Finance and institutions Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.
In the January survey, the world Bank predicted world economic growth in 2020 by 2.5%. Thus, in June, it downgraded from 7.7 percentage points.
Flash coronavirus infection COVID-19 began in late 2019 in China. March 11, 2020, the world health organization declared the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. According to the American Johns Hopkins University, in the world COVID-19 sick over 7 million people, more than 405 thousand of them died, and of 3.18 million recovered.
In connection with the quarantine imposed because of the epidemic, in many countries, businesses are closed, which caused massive economic crisis. According to IMF estimates, this is the most serious crisis since the great depression.