The arrest of ex-President Almazbek Atambayev has given only a respite team of Sooronbay Zheenbekov, according to respondents DW experts. To stabilize the situation in the country the head of state needs allies.
August 29, the Pervomaisky district court in Bishkek has released under house arrest of the party leader “ATA Meken” Omurbek Tekebayev of. A prominent politician was sentenced to eight years on corruption charges in August 2017. When the President was still Almazbek Atambayev. Kyrgyz court acknowledged that the decision is correct, although the evidence base and then called the experts a lot of questions. And now, less than two years, as state on a post of the head of state was replaced by Sooronbai Jeenbekov, the Supreme court sent the case Tekebayev for review, and later the district court issued the policy from prison under house arrest.
Justice of Kyrgyzstan and the retrial Tekebayev
In the eyes of the supporters of Tekebayev – political prisoner and a hero. At the same time, we will remind, the decision on review was taken in Bishkek, two weeks after the confrontation between the current government and supporters of former President Atambaev went into the hot phase: there was a bad storm at home Atambayev on 7 August, it was armed resistance to his supporters, was a surrender of the former President by Russian forces. The question arises: what prompted the authorities in this situation to go for the release Tekebayev?
An employee of the Center for East European and international studies (ZOiS) asment Beate (Beate Eschment) believes that the precedent Tekebayev, first, demonstrates the dependence of justice in Kyrgyzstan, and, secondly, shows that Sooronbai Jeenbekov not particularly confident sitting in the presidential chair, that he needs allies. In her opinion, the arrest of Atambayev’s challenges for the team of Sooronbay Zheenbekov has not ended.
Ultimatum Atambaev and the arrest of ex-President of Kyrgyzstan
“Extremely unsuccessful operation to arrest Atambayev blow to the image of Sooronbay Zheenbekov, – the expert continues. The operation was carried out directly before the meeting of the Eurasian intergovernmental Council in Bishkek, security forces were in a hurry to solve the problem with unyielding Atambayev, who threatened to shift the power, put her an ultimatum and tried to show who’s boss”.
Kyrgyz politician and former political Director of the UN mission in Afghanistan, Talatbek of Masadykov calls the situation a lull for the team of Sooronbay Zheenbekov. “When a lull will be blown up, it is difficult to say. – he told DW. – In November will be two years since Sooronbai Jeenbekov in power, and still walked disassembly only between the two groups, and not the most numerous – and the state”. Meanwhile, people who are unhappy with the first rule first, and now second, it becomes, according to Masadykov, more.
Masadykov agree that Sooronbai Jeenbekov needs allies, and in the South, where its position is stronger, and in the North. “And Tekebayev is a strong, well-known personality, has the support of both the South and the North,” he said, and acknowledged that Sooronbai Jeenbekov concluded with tekebaeva some kind of deal. “If they agreed, it will strengthen the position of the President. But Tekebayev can lead and the game. And then he, after sitting in prison and coming out with the halo of a Martyr, it will be much stronger than Sooronbai Jeenbekov,” believes Kyrgyz politicians.
Why return Babanov team Zheenbekov
In the current situation, Sooronbai Jeenbekov may be based on the principle “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, bearing in mind the General and tekebaeva hostility to the European Union, says Beate asment. But experience shows that few fragile such arrangements in Kyrgyzstan. “Political alliances there lasts only as long as one of the allies will not gain enough power to offset the other,” she recalls, and adds that it is not clear to what extent Tekebayev will be able to mobilize political supporters, and how they have retained their influence in the country.
At the same Tekebayev – not only among those who after the opals has a chance to return to the political Olympus of Kyrgyzstan. In August, immediately after the arrest Atambaev in Kyrgyzstan, despite the wound on his criminal cases, returned Omurbek Babanov. It was he in the election in 2017 was a serious competitor to Sooronbay Jeenbekov.
Talatbek of Masadykov does not exclude that Babanov agreed with the President that in exchange for closing cases, he will calm at least dissatisfied with Sooronbai Jeenbekov Talas oblast in the North. “Now there is evidence that activists who have recently in Talas take people out on the street, say that no revolutions no longer need,” says Taalaibek of Masadykov. However, he continues, there is another version – that Babanov, on the contrary, went back to the time when the current government cannot afford to arrest him, because he would then provoke a serious clash between the North and the South. Say, for Babanov to intercede and external forces. Masadykov has in mind Russia, where Babanov left after the 2017 elections, and Kazakhstan, where he also has extensive contacts.
Russia’s role in the Kyrgyz political game
The Kremlin’s role in the Kyrgyz political game has caught the attention of experts after a short trip to Russia Atambaev at the end of July. “A great success for the state was that he was in a situation of confrontation with Sooronbai Jeenbekov met with President of Russia”, – says Beate of Achmet. However, Putin’s words – a pier, you there at home you will be examined and we is us the main thing – stability – Atambayev is unlikely to like it. “Maybe, intelligence agencies of Kyrgyzstan took this as a signal for the arrest of the former President, because they realized that the Russians do not intervene,” says asment.
The fact that a special flight took Atambayev with base in Kant, were taken to Russia and then returned, some have found unacceptable by Moscow’s intervention in the Kyrgyz case, said Talatbek of Masadykov. Others, he said, decided that it was just a gesture of the Kremlin, which has not forgotten the decision to close the us military base at Manas, which was adopted at the time, Atambayev. “In General, – the expert speaks, – there was much speculation about the fact that Russia is playing a double game that the different forces in the Kremlin-different look at the conflict of the President and ex-President of Kyrgyzstan”.
But no matter what new allies now were not looking for a team of Sooronbay Zheenbekov, convinced of Masadykov, stability it does not provide until then, until it begins to address social issues. “Outdated management style, corruption and paternalistic personnel policy may not provide the stability,” – said the expert. Many insiders in Kyrgyzstan, according to him, based on the fact that it was only a temporary lull. “Over the holiday period and the accumulated matters to the authorities will once again be on the agenda,” – said Talatbek of Masadykov.