The average annual dollar rate in 2020 will amount to 74 rubles, and Euro the peak level is 80 rubles, predicts rating Agency of ACRE.
Analysts created three macroeconomic scenarios for Russia up to 2022: base, optimistic and pessimistic.
Thus, under the baseline scenario, the dollar in 2020 will amount to 73.8 per ruble and Euro – ruble 80.3. It is also expected that the price of Urals oil in 2020 will fall from 60 to 53 dollars.
In 2021 the national currency will strengthen to 67.3 rubles per dollar and 72 rubles per Euro. However, in 2022 and 2023, the ruble will once again weaken and the rate will increase to 69,2 and 70,2 of the ruble to the dollar and 73.4 and 74.4 ruble per Euro.
According to the optimistic scenario, next year the average annual dollar exchange rate will be equal to 64.3 rubles, and the Euro with 70.7. A barrel of Urals to rise to 66.1 per dollar.
At the worst hands the dollar in 2020 will be equal to 79.5 per ruble and Euro – ruble 87.5. The price for a barrel of oil collapse to 40.1 per dollar.
Negative impact on the Russian economy, estimated ACRES, will have a slowdown in the growth of world trade, as it will lead to a decline in demand for traditional Russian export goods, including raw materials.
In addition, more than 20 percent of Russian exports go to the direct participants of trade wars and countries with the risk of introducing protectionist measures in the near future.
Previously, a serious decline in the ruble was predicted by the chief economist of the largest Bank of Poland Yaroslav COSATU. According to the analyst, the weakening of the ruble caused by the outflow of non-resident investors from the Russian Federal loan bonds (OFZ) and could reach 9.1 percent.