The victim of the rating: how and why Zelensky looking for a replacement Goncharuk

Жертва рейтинга: как и почему Зеленский ищет замену Гончаруку

The chances of a quick dismissal of the government Alexey Goncharuk has increased dramatically. His most likely successor – businessman Sergey Tigipko. But the team of Vladimir Zelensky discuss other candidates.

With the possible appointment of Tihipko, who in the 90s was a member of the Cabinet of Pavlo Lazarenko, the “Servant of the people”, not everyone agrees. More details in the material.

These latest polls forced the President’s Office to actively think about the reboot of the government. According to the Razumkov Center, the level of confidence in the Cabinet since September, has halved from 57 to 28 percent. While distrust has increased almost three times, reaching 64.5 percent.

Personally to Prime Minister Alexey Goncharuk, on the basis of this research, trust about 25% of respondents do not trust – 63%. More than half of respondents do not support his tenure.

Ratings of President Vladimir Zelensky and the party “servant of the people” also subsided, but not so critical. “Alex is a weight that drags us all down,” said RBC-Ukraine source in the environment Zelensky.

The candidates to replace

Goncharuk was not a member of the team of Vladimir Zelensky at the stage of the presidential campaign. After the victory in the elections to Zelensky, he was brought five minutes to the head of the Office of the President Andrey Bogdan, who Goncharuk became Deputy, and then was appointed to the Cabinet.

A surrounded by Zelensky in August believed Goncharuk convenient Prime Minister, because he has no political ambitions (as he himself repeatedly said, already working in government). This reduced the risks of public conflicts with OP.

Another argument in his favor was that Goncharuk did not enter the inner circle of the President, and therefore Zelensky will be easier to let him go, if so requested by the political situation. And this time, it seems, is coming.

“We need to stop being such a coward over the ratings, and to take and do reform!” in conversation with the publication of emotionally said one of the prominent representatives of monopolista. But he immediately acknowledged that this approach is not particularly popular among his associates.

In any case, for change of the head of the Cabinet it is necessary to solve three questions: who will be the replacement Goncharuk, who will take place in the new government and how to find for it the necessary votes in Parliament.

According to RBC-Ukraine, the highest chance to lead a new Cabinet of Ministers Sergei Tigipko. The concept of the “new faces in politics,” he obviously does not fit. He first entered government in 1997, becoming Deputy Prime Minister for economic reform issues, when Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko.

At different times Tigipko headed the national Bank of Ukraine, was part of the Governments of Viktor Yushchenko and Mykola Azarov, oversaw the headquarters of Viktor Yanukovych in the 2004 elections, he held the position of Deputy head of Party of regions. In the early 90s, he headed the Board of PrivatBank.

As explained by the interlocutor of the edition in “the Servant of the people”, according to the party of sociology, people’s demand for “new faces”, by which made possible a convincing victory Zelensky and his party in last year’s elections has already been exhausted. This is especially true of economic management and representation in local government – now, according to the source, people want to see there is already “people with experience”.

According to other representative “public Servants” in the promotion Tihipko the post of Prime Minister is interested and oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and his partner Gennady Bogolyubov, who were unable to find a common language with Goncharuk. At the same time, he says that the idea to lead the Cabinet itself Tigipko greeted with great skepticism.

Zelensky also confirmed that he conducted interviews with many people, including Tigipko. But which position is not specified. According to one version, the businessman was considered as a possible Vice Prime Minister on economic unit. Informed RBC-Ukraine have already talked about that on Bank looking for candidates for the position.

Then in monopoliste said that first try to limit ourselves to minor changes in the Cabinet Goncharuk and see if it at least mitigate the negative rating trends.

“A month ago there was a sense Tigipko to put just the Deputy Prime Minister, some rotation to make sense now you’re not going to be enough”, – said a source in the environment Zelensky.

Tigipko is not the only candidate for the Premiership, which is discussed at the Bank and in the parliamentary lobby. Sounds like the name of another multimillionaire Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, who also frequently held high posts in the government, since the times of Leonid Kuchma. Early parliamentary elections 2014 Khoroshkovsky was the second number in the list of party Tigipko “Strong Ukraine”.

Shortly after winning the election Zelensky Khoroshkovsky returned to Ukraine, was seen in the Office of the President, and the former head of OP Andrey Bogdan was engaged in the “business customs”.

According to RBC-Ukraine, Khoroshkovsky has long offered to enter into Executive power, but the businessman refused, offering instead to appoint his people to interesting areas in the civil service. Now his chances to occupy an armchair of the head of the Cabinet, the source estimates are lower than Tigipko.

For a long time on the sidelines talking about a possible appointment to the post of Prime Minister, the Executive Director of “Naftogaz of Ukraine” Yuriy Vitrenko, who allegedly lobbying Igor Kolomoisky.

But the probability of this option is low – has become a hindrance scandal by paying them a high premium for legal victory over “Gazprom”. By the way, the Vitrenko gave information about his possible Premiership “special stuffing”.

To completely write off is not worth it and a government veteran, interior Minister Arsen Avakov, although his chances are also very low.

A broad coalition

Any shifts in the Cabinet have to be a priori approved by the Verkhovna Rada. In the fraction of SN the publication said that the situation six months ago when monopolista without much issues would support any candidate proposed by Zelensky, now it will not happen again. Voices will have to collect.

At a fraction of the President is not hoping that “European solidarity” and “the Voice” will support the candidature of Tihipko. One of the team members Zelensky predicted such an alignment of part of the “public Servants”, of Deputy group “Oppositional framework “For life” and most likely “Fatherland” Yulia Tymoshenko, who collaborated with Tigipko still in the river in the end of 80-ies.

“So unpleasant “coalition” under Tigipko is going in the Parliament. Of our precisely many do not vote. Well and if suddenly will make Khoroshkovsky or Avakov’s scary to imagine what split we will have,” said the source.

Interestingly, at least two prominent members of the team Zelensky in the past collaborated with Sergei Tigipko and his party “Strong Ukraine”. The current spokesman Dmitry Razumkov from 2010 to 2012, advising policy and worked on the construction of its political power. Deputy head of the faction “servant of the people” Eugene Kravchuk was assistant Tigipko in the Parliament of the seventh convocation, as well as communications Director at the headquarters of the party “Strong Ukraine” on elections in 2014.

Technically, the Parliament is not yet able to start any HR issues, because still busy with the consideration of amendments to the bill on the land market. To handle all four thousand amendments, the Parliament will need no less than a plenary week.

However, the solution can become an extraordinary session of Parliament devoted exclusively to the appointment of a new Cabinet. It can take place quite quickly, about the next two weeks.

But the interviewed deputies from SN said that the initiative has so far heard nothing. One of them even admitted that the emergence of information about Tigipko Prime Minister can only be test Bank on how this person will perceive in society.

Various sources confirm that as of this moment the final decision to replace the head of the Cabinet Zelensky has not yet adopted, although it “Matures”. A number of persons in his entourage to dissuade the President from this idea, appealing primarily to the fact that the resignation Goncharuk now can seriously harm the negotiations with the Western creditors of Ukraine, primarily with the IMF.

Related issue – the composition of the new government, after the Prime Minister’s resignation automatically means the resignation of the entire Cabinet. “If in configuration all all do not agree, then Goncharuk may yet stay in position” – say at a fraction of SN.

Himself acting Prime Minister assured that communicated with Tigipko, but only on the subject of strengthening the government, and subject to his resignation from the President were not discussed. In his entourage RBC-Ukraine also said that Goncharuk is not going to resign.

Technically he does have immunity from dismissal until the fall until a year after his appointment. But the interlocutor in an environment Zelensky sure Goncharuk will not oppose the decision of the President and at his request, immediately write a letter of resignation from the post.

Milan Lelić, Juliana Bezpalko