To save an outstanding trump: what are the chances of impeachment of the President of the United States

Спасти нерядового Трампа: каковы шансы на импичмент президенту США

Political scandal in the US around the parts of the conversation between Donald trump and Vladimir Zelensky, on 25 July, is gaining momentum. Has reached that the representatives of the Democratic party of the United States began in Congress impeachment of President trump. However, until released, in fact, the text of the conversation the American and Ukrainian presidents will not meet trump and Zelensky, to predict in some way the development of the situation in the USA is impossible. Such theses expressed “Apostrophe” diplomat, former Minister Counsellor of the Embassy of Ukraine to the United States Sergey Korsun.

Now it is absolutely impossible to predict the results of the initiated procedure of impeachment of Donald trump. The issue will be resolved after the publication of the record of trump and Zelensky, which became the basis for initiating the topic of impeachment. And only then will it become clear how justified the charges against trump and how to interpret the details of the conversation. Usually when in the States, things like this happen, they are well thought out by their proponents are serious grounds for such steps. On the other hand, skeletons in the closet is on both sides, and who knows what will eventually lead the war of copromote. And the fact that such a war starts, there is no reason to doubt.

Trump has expressed willingness to publish the transcript of the conversation with Zelensky, but it does not mean that he had nothing to fear. After all, the question is not so much, does trump that in his conversation with Zelensky nothing incriminating, and how this conversation will be interpreted. This is serious legal stuff. USA – land of lawyers, and they interpretaciju through each letter of the conversation will solve the issue. Most likely, trump has agreed to publish a transcript of a conversation due to the fact that he, in fact, no other choice. By American standards it is very serious. And the failure to disclose the conversation is an actual plea for trump.

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If the results of the analysis of conversation trump and Zelensky will form a serious basis for charging the President with grave breaches of the procedure of impeachment will go to the next level of assurance that the Republican majority in the Senate is to stand behind the mountain of trump no. Of course, to protect trump in the absence of other candidates for the 2020 elections – a logical strategy for the Republican party. But in addition to the presidential election in 2020, and the interim parliamentary elections. The Republicans have already lost the House of Commons, and in the event of serious grounds for impeachment trump, they will be forced to protect not trump, and party.

There are opinions that if the impeachment proceedings will come to naught, it will give Trump a serious electoral preferences in the elections of 2020. But that’s not quite true. After all, American voters are more concerned with economic issues and domestic policy than foreign relations. And the fact that there trump Zelensky said during a conversation, is unlikely to generate significant interest of the American voter and will have a big impact on future elections. Moreover, they’ve a lot of time.

In any case, to predict the development of the situation now impossible. Need to wait for the publication of the call, and even more meetings trump and Zelensky. After all, the results of this meeting may well sound abstract and taken certain steps that will totally remove the issue of impeachment off the agenda. There is more that American political practice it allows such quick and abrupt completion of conflict.

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