End of quarantine: to work in mid – may?
While everyone understands the seriousness of the problem coronavirus, for the first plan are increasingly out of the economic aspect of quarantine.
The government publicly States that talk about the weakening or the abolition of restrictive measures yet, but informal communications are increasingly beginning to appear about the fact that she understands: by the end of the first month of quarantine socio-economic problems become too serious for the state and for its citizens.
Yesterday was published unofficial information about the meeting of Prime Minister with the members of “Servants of the people”. And it was allegedly announced the government’s plan to quarantine, consisting of two points: the abolition of major restrictions in the second half of may and the observance of safety measures until September. That is, since the second half of may, most people will be able to work, but masks will be worn until autumn.
It is unknown how reliable this information is, but it has put before the government a serious question because of the restrictive measures need to cancel for the sake of boosting economic activities, and what to leave for the sake of slowing the spread of coronavirus.
For example, it is clear that public transport needs to be back – without stopping even what to stay should not. To return to the markets too. But then the questions begin. Do I need to restore the operation of cinemas and entertainment centers? Do I need to allow cafes and other catering? Do I need to restore transport links with foreign countries?
Obviously, fully the restrictive measures on Ukraine (and other States) refuse to come soon. And those companies that can work online, much of its work remains in quarantine mode (some even refuse regular offices). But the degree of restriction at the state level should be determined by the state, finding the line between the possible restrictive measures and those that pose a threat to the economy. To address this issue now, because the weakening of the quarantine is clearly not far off.
“Sequestration” of the budget: waiting for the emission of the hryvnia?
Meanwhile, the Cabinet has finally developed a new – already third in a row – version of “coronavirus” changes in the budget. However, the bill yet, so can’t say he is at all, or only have advertising infographic, which was published by Denis Shmyhal. However, in any case, the fact that he published leaves some questions.
Among the published figures the most significant two: additional spending on pensions in the amount of 20 billion hryvnia, and the formation of the Fund of struggle against coronavirus in the amount of 97 billion. This is more or less clear, although there are doubts about that for 10 million pensioners will have enough additional 20 billion
But here’s the question: where will these additional 117 billion? The cost of road construction reduced “as much as” $ 1 billion, although earlier we were talking about tens of billions. But it is still possible to understand: after all, road construction creates jobs.
The cost to the economy is also reduced by 1 billion, although there is likely a need to add – in fact all the leading Nations, in addition to the epidemic, as the time invested in supporting the economy.
The defense budget remains unchanged. So where will 117 billion?
If any huge reduction in unnecessary expenditure is, then they should definitely say in the advertising infographics because of the state taking $ 50 billion and another 20 billion from parasites from the Ministry of culture. But a word about it. And there is a suspicion that the state apparatus is not taking anything, and the cuts of the Ministry of culture will minimize.
A 117 billion – will print?
Ministry of economy: GDP fell even in the winter
Meanwhile, the Ministry of economy, who is going to cut a billion, published data on gross domestic product. However, only in the first two months, although it would not hurt to give data for the entire first quarter. I wonder if the economy even before the budget cuts believes GDP in a month, how long they will consider if you have to go to the shrink?
However, now, during the period of quarantine, data for January-February are even more revealing. The fact that for the first two months 2020 Ukraine’s GDP… dropped.
If someone still remembers life before the quarantine, you can recall the fact that in January and February, the plague was not. Public transport worked, and even movie theaters were still a part of the cultural life of Ukrainians. In General, there was no reason that could be invoked to explain the crisis. But GDP – declined.
In the first two months of the fall of the economy was 1.7%. To understand the originality of this event, you need to remember that over the last 20 years, the GDP in Ukraine fell twice: in 2008-09 (the global crisis) and in 2014-15 (active hostilities in the Donbass). And the current government had to try very hard to without any serious factors “to achieve” the fall of the economy. The reason is obvious – the decline in industrial production, which began with the end of summer last year. And one reason for this is the strengthening of the hryvnia, which also took place during this period due to the global financial speculation in the market of government bonds. Now, of course, this factor is already gone, but still to forget, who and how started the crisis mechanisms already before the beginning of the epidemic.
And ahead – the most interesting. If nothing happens in may, the Ministry of economy will calculate GDP for the first quarter, and in June – four months. And then we have to find out what happened to the economy during the quarantine. However, we can already ask the question: some people believe that in 2020 the GDP for the year will fall by only 5%, if even in “peaceful” January and February he has lost almost 2%?
Works for whom “demplatforma” within government?
The political life of the country yesterday was focused on the fight over the law on banks, known as “andikalovsky” law. He Igor, by the way, said yesterday that no andikalovsky, and the anti-Ukrainian law on selling the Motherland for 30 pieces of silver, but his voice was drowned in the chorus of outrage about 16 thousand edits to it which made the deputies close to the oligarch.
As if reflecting the political battles, the speaker of Parliament Dmitry Razumkov yesterday reported that within the faction “Servants of the people” formed “demplatforma”. The use of this term demonstrates that the 36-year-old speaker is familiar with Soviet history Gorbachev period, because “demplatforma” then called the opposition of the Communist party of the Soviet Union, formed in the Communist party and made many for the collapse of the party and the collapse of the Soviet state.
So the term is quite ambiguous.
There are also questions about the essence of the name “democratic”. It is known that representatives of this platform advocate nationalists, against peace in the Donbass and against those few representatives of the we-team (like Sivaji), who in this world stand up.
Such a position can hardly be called “democratic.”
Although this term can be approached from the other side. For example, if you remember that the real leadership of this “opposition” is the headquarters of the Democratic party of the United States. In the duck case, the epithet “democratic” to the “platform” applies. But only in quotes.
Because, again, to democracy, this group is referred to in the common “Sarasate”, is not relevant: it software values are the fulfillment of all requirements of the IMF, blocking peace initiatives in the Donbass, the total Ukrainization and support nationalism.
Speaking of “platforms” inside “SN”, Razumkov forgot to mention another one – “Kolomoisky” platform, which, in fact, made the most out of 16,000 edits to the “anticolonial” law.
So, technically within the government already two of the opposition. But it’s not so bad. The real trouble is that due to the emergence of two opposition within the government is now part of the government was the one whom the people have overthrown a year ago, Petro Poroshenko with his “European solidarity” (the former “Solidarity”, former BPP). And this is a real opportunity for all of 73% of the electorate of Vladimir Zelensky to think about the reasons they voted.
States privatized the moon
Yesterday, the President of the United States Donald trump issued a decree, after which it became clear: the future is now. However, is not the future that was shown to the children of the Soviet Union in the “Guest from the future” and the future of American movies in the style of “post-Apocalypse” – when the Earth dies because of a disaster, and the remnants of its inhabitants seeking refuge on other planets.
In General, yesterday Donald trump issued a decree on the withdrawal of the United States from the International agreement governing the activities of States on the moon and other celestial bodies. Adopted this agreement was the UN General Assembly in 1979 – that is, ten years later, after the Americans sent to the moon people, and the Soviet Union began to send the Rovers.
Apparently, in the late 1970s it seemed to many that the exploration of the moon and other celestial bodies do not far off, and therefore, the UN recognized all around the Earth, the common property of mankind.
But now universal, they are not. According to the decree trump the States can get on the moon minerals and to consider them as their property. In General, the White house launches described in science fiction books the process of colonisation of other planets, which always began with the extraction of resources. Just as five hundred years ago – the colonization process of Europe other continents.
This step can be regarded as immoral.
On the other hand, he can launch a global competition of leading powers for space exploration. That, in turn, will stimulate scientific progress.
And it can have strong effects – mankind will again have the mega-objectives on which it will focus. And epidemics, and other problems will pale into insignificance in comparison with them.