During the year principles of economic policy in the country can completely change, and not for the better.
Thinking about the economy, the Ukrainians, as a rule, ask the question: what will happen to the hryvnia exchange rate and prices?
At first glance, 2019? year – the year of the huge risks. The coming presidential and parliamentary elections. While no one knows exactly what will be the lists of candidates and parties. Three months before the election, 30% of respondents undecided with who are ready to vote, and the strongest candidate just 16% support among those who plan to go to the polls. The situation is even worse if the case goes to the second round. In any case, more than half of voters will not be able to choose any of the two contenders.
This is not surprising. All candidates negative balance of trust?/? mistrust of citizens, and each of the two front-runners, don’t trust of more than 70% of Ukrainians.
Like a game of roulette more risky, given the lack of strong parties and a mixed majoritarian-proportional system. The winner of the presidential race can easily pull to the ranks of his party a significant part of the majority and the most unscrupulous and odious, to form a coalition in the Parliament and take control of the government.
Thus, the total for the year principles of economic policy in the country can completely change, and not for the better. Candidates calling to transfer control of national Bank policies and start vengeance to print money, reduce double or quadruple the gas prices scare their statements active citizens and business. We only came in after the crisis of 2014-2015, nobody wants another collapse of the currency and the real impoverishment.
But this time, the country has a powerful protector. Oddly enough, talking about external debt. In the next three years Ukraine must pay foreign creditors almost $?20 billion of debt. This amount is equal to the value of all foreign exchange reserves of the country. $?13 billion will have to pay for the new government in 2020-2021 years.
To do so without the assistance programmes of the International monetary Fund impossible. The IMF, by the way, will never accept any multiple reductions in the price of gas or the control of politicians over the national Bank. Go for it for the new government means to choose a direct path to a default and another financial crisis in the first year of the reign.
President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Vladimir Groysman has tried to go on tricks last year, but had yet to fulfill the promise to international lenders to adopt a law on anti-corruption court and to raise the price of gas. Even the deputies imbued with the importance of the obligations to the Fund and a month earlier than usual passed the budget with almost no hotelok, satisfied with the new scheme of direct levies on citizens through the real estate appraisal.
Therefore, the baseline scenario for Ukraine in the next year or the stability of the exchange rate and prices. Unless, of course, Russia will not aggravate in the East.
But by itself, financial stability will not give the country the rapid growth of the economy. It is only to prevent tripping. Growth requires economic reforms, which in 2019? m obviously, there will be problems. And not because these reforms are unpopular in society. They are simply unfavorable a corrupt political class.
A good example is the reforms of the last two years. Pension, with increase of requirements to working experience, clearly can not be called popular. However, it is without difficulty passed Parliament in the fall of 2017, and even did not cause any protests of citizens. About the same even when Yanukovych was raised the retirement age for women. Such reforms do not affect influential corrupt interests, and therefore are easy.
At the same time bringing gas prices in line with the market, the lifting of the moratorium on land sales and privatization blocked by these interests. Declared unpopularity here – just a cover in order to preserve the corrupt schemes.
However, in an election year for the unpopularity of sitting on corruption-related flows, an even more significant factor than the attitude of the people. So in 2019 you can only rely on the reforms laid down in the IMF program and, perhaps, even in the conditions of macro-financial assistance of the European Union. Realistic technical changes that have no particular enemies. However, for larger economic reforms such as opening the land market will need a lot of pressure and good luck.
The main reform of 2019, which can give impetus to the economy, – creating a Higher anti-corruption court. If you still manage to make it independent and working, he will be able to put an end to impunity for the raiders racketeers and undermining the investment climate. This is not economic reform may be the most important for business in the coming year.