The chances of success of the peace process is so weak that Zelensky was afraid to spook them a bit harsh rhetoric.
On February 18 there were two important events. For the first time in a long period at the front there was a serious clash with heavy weapons, and it was not a spontaneous escalation, and prepared offensive by the enemy. And on the same day it was reported that Putin dismissed his aide Vladislav Surkov. Resignation of Surkov talked for a long time, lacking only a formal confirmation and there it was.
How directly connected these two events is uncertain. There is no reason to believe that Surkov is behind Russian special operation in Ukraine in 2014, has provoked in some way an attack on the site from Novoselkovskogo to the Groove and was finally dismissed. Ukrainian theme for some time occupied the Deputy head of Putin’s administration, Dmitry Kozak. But to claim that the attack on our position was made directly by order or with the consent of the Cossack, with certainty is impossible, this area of divination.
In fact, the area of divination is the whole theme of the Kremlin’s plans for the occupation of the Donbass. A General framework is clear: Russia seeks ideally to shove ORDO part of Ukraine on conditions of autonomy, which would allow to block the European integration course and to influence in a decisive way on the internal politics of the country. And the person who makes the final decision about the future of the Russian occupation, is Vladimir Putin, and no one else.
It’s like making a minor difference between the “bad COP”, a lover of designing an alternate reality, a proponent of tough options Surkov and the “good COP” Kozak, sharpened to search clever political combinations in favor of the Kremlin, on the basis of existing circumstances. No matter who is in contact with Kiev directly if everything is tied in the end of the Russian President. But, on the other hand, Putin did not go into details and looking at the situation through the eyes of your Commissioner.
Not to say that Vladislav Surkov, in this sense, summed up his boss, he organized a political-propaganda support of the invasion of Ukraine, just as he ended the active phase of the invention “republics” were noticeably bored and stopped creative. And the occupied territories in the East of Ukraine began from the key to the problems, as once considered in the Kremlin, to turn one big nasty problem. It’s not the trump card of Putin and his unbuttoned fly, in which he indicates the West at the slightest occasion. Kozak must now bring Putin out of the impasseinto which he drove himself together with Surkov, and withdraw so that the leader is not lose face.
Putin himself, after a long period of fascination with the geopolitical game in which Ukraine was given a large, but still the most important place, focused on consolidating their domestic positions. Not that these positions were shaky, but 2024 is approaching inexorably, encountering near and far the President’s entourage to different ideas. To distract them from stupid, the aging king came up the charade with the constitutional reform changed the government and busy with my placement. Harder to distract the population, which returned to docsystem indicators of distrust of government. Putin is not so much love as it was yesterday, how many were forced to suffer. Demonstrative brutal repression only emphasize that the time gingerbread is replaced by the time whip.
Since 2012, Russia’s economy is stagnating, and in the run up to 2024 no miracles expected GDP growth, according to all forecasts, will not go beyond the boundaries of 0.5-1.5% per year, real incomes from rising nowhere. Anti-Western propaganda pumped the last years, which were spent huge funds, also ceased to operate. The February poll, “Levada-Center” showed that about 80% of Russians believe that Russia and the West should tie the bonds of friendship and partnership. 16% of respondents said the West opponent, and only 3% – enemy. Maybe it’s time to do something to weaken the sanctions?
In addition to internal factors, decompresses the current frame, limiting the Russian position in Donbass, there are external. In the first place is a greater involvement of the United States on the Ukrainian side in this conflict. Despite consistent sanctions policy, which is shared by both chambers of Congress, the trump distanciruemsa from the problems of Ukraine and does not show the desire to increase pressure on Russia, whose leader he is deeply cute. If the White house will be replaced by the owner with a high probability will change and American foreign policy, and there is no reason why she suddenly becomes gentle with respect to Russia, which so annoyed the local Democrats in 2016.
These are all important circumstances, the potential cracks in a reinforced position of the Kremlin that Ukraine give some hope to achieve success on the return of currently occupied territories in the Donbas on their own terms. Yes, it’s possible that hope will prove illusory, and get undue optimism should not, then to not be disappointed, but don’t try to look for your chance. The area of divination, which is a theme of the Donbass, suggests not only the worst.
Everyone noticed how Zelensky was restrained in assessing the battle in the Luhansk region. He called the attack our positions provocation “to disrupt the peace process in the Donbass, which began to move, though small, but irresistible steps.” And the chief of staff Ruslan Homchak, the representative of Ukraine to the UN, Sergei Kislitsa in more detail describe the incident. On Bankova leave the Russian negotiators in the first place the same Dmitry Kozak, the ability to relate occurred at the expense of local initiative, even if they themselves do not believe in such freedom of action there the puppets, or inconsistent operations of the Russian power bloc politics.
The chances of success of the peace process is so weak that Zelensky was afraid to spook them a bit harsh rhetoric. Many of this restraint hurt and outraged, and any expectation of concessions from the Russian side are considered to be foolishly naive, or they see a certificate ready to go to their unacceptable concessions. With all the righteousness of these emotions they are deprived of all faith in what the military-diplomatic confrontation with Russia, it is possible to achieve something. Optimism Zelensky on this background still looks more pragmatic and productive position. He is willing to at least try. And all of a sudden?