What will happen to oligarchs in Ukraine in the future

Что ждет олигархов Украины в будущем

On 4 February, the Ukrainian experts of the Institute for the future in conjunction with the International Bleyzer Foundation presented the report “Future of the Ukrainian oligarchs.” Victor Androsov, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute for the future has led several scenarios emerge according to the study.

Conservative scenario

Means that the oligarchs are not paying attention to everything that happens. Problems they perceive as a bad period, rather than as a systemic phenomenon at the state level. As a result, the oligarchs are interfering in elections, have their factions and are worried about their economy.

“We predict that such a scenario will lead to the bankruptcy of the oligarchs. Since they are the core of the system in which we live, such a scenario will lead to the bankruptcy of our country. We believe this scenario is bad, but it is most likely,” – says Victor Androsov, Executive Director of the Ukrainian Institute for the future

Revolutionary scenario

The British variant. When the power comes a new leader in agreement with the oligarchs, but then violate the agreement. The leader begins to implement reforms and to oppress the oligarchic structure.

“Even if we have such a righteous President, he will not be able to defeat the oligarchs power to those institutions which today has our system. This scenario is unlikely,” – says Victor Androsov.

The revolt of the middle class. You can create a powerful platform, which together will counteract the oligarchs is one of the desired scenarios. However, to fight must not be less organized, and to unite such a large number of people is impossible.

Removal of external pressure. When the developed countries directly will make it clear they are tired of the fact that the oligarchs prey on international assistance. In this scenario, external actors, for their part, will seize the assets, to authorize the oligarchs, and they should leave politics and open access to it. However, remain an open question whom to give access to power, because the new leaders there.

Conventional Polish round table

This scenario is not the best call, and call optimum today. When in Poland, the government could not defeat the opposition, and the opposition could not defeat the power of then interior Minister put everyone at a round table and they began to talk. In the course of conversation lined up some communication, trust.

“The peculiarity of this round table in Ukraine that can bring the oligarchs that their businesses grow only when the economy grows. If the economy is not improving, they would not have future”, – adds Victor Androsov.

The report ended with an open question that still has no answer: who will sit on the other side of the round table, if the oligarchs still want him to come?

Antonina Kartasheva

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