What will happen to the hryvnia in may: the forecast of the dollar

Что будет с гривней в мае: прогноз курса доллара

After a slight weakening occurred before the presidential elections, the hryvnia is growing. The national Bank also increased the official rate of the hryvnia to 9 kopeks, to 26,68 UAH/USD. Experts predict national currency in the next few months of relative stability, but do not exclude small jumps of the course in connection with the debt payments and rising social standards.

How to change the course

If 20 April, the rate of cash dollar has added 27 kopecks, rising to 27.2 UAH/USD in the sale and to 26.88 UAH/USD in buying, April 24 UAH played the fall. Moreover, the dollar was 3 kopecks. cheaper in the sale (an average of 26.9 UAH/USD) and 7 kopecks. cheaper to purchase (averaging 26.6 UAH/USD). The increase in the spread (difference between buying and selling) suggests that financiers believe in the strengthening of the hryvnia, so do not rush to buy foreign currency in the hope that it will rise in price. Seem to believe in it and the population: according to our monitoring of the banks, fuss with buying or selling currency, cashiers complained that there was a lull.

The forecast from the experts

Bankers and financial market analysts also predict the stability of the hryvnia, but they say that it will be slightly above 27 UAH/USD.

“Jump in the cash rate before the elections, wore a speculative character, – told us the managing Director of finkompany “AVERS No. 1” Igor Lvov. The market expects no spike, because the future President confirmed the cooperation with the IMF. But in the next two to three months course will be in the hallway 27-27,5 UAH/USD due to payments on foreign debts and rising social standards from 1 July as the flow of “extra” the hryvnia will weaken its course.”

But the head of Department of Analytics Forex Club Andrey Shevchishin, we see three possible risks that could derail the hryvnia in may above 28 UAH/USD.

“The first risk is that payments on external public debt at the beginning of may (about 2 billion), second – if at the end of the IMF mission, scheduled for may, we do not receive from the Fund the next tranche of 1.9 billion dollars, the third possible early dissolution of the new President of the Verkhovna Rada and early parliamentary elections, analyzes Shevchishin. The last risk is unlikely, but not impossible”.

In General, experts estimate that the probability of devaluation of the hryvnia below 28 UAH/USD about three times lower than the stability of its course in the next 100 days within 27-27,5 UAH/USD.

The exchange rate depends on the policy

In the summer the dollar will remain in the range of 26,5-27,5 UAH, said the head of the Secretariat of the Council of entrepreneurs under the Cabinet of Ministers Andrei Zablovsky.

“Reduced business activity, will increase the export of our goods and reduce the import of oil products will strengthen the national currency. But there are political risks. If the government lost control over the situation in the country, it will scare away investors, and people want to withdraw money from the banks,” – said the expert.

We will remind, earlier experts predicted what to expect from the hryvnia in April. In addition, experts explained, “Today”, what will happen to prices after the elections and how it relates to the dollar: