2019 was rich in events and processes that affected the entire planet. But on their own they remain nothing more than a news feed, if you do not make proper conclusions. That is why the “Apostrophe” tried to look at the world in 2019 in whole, to denote 19 the main lessons of the outgoing year.
Lesson 1. 5G – the new standard of communication and a new market to fight
Only a year ago Ukraine has started the launch of mobile networks by 4G, and in 2019 the world was plunged into a struggle for the market promising 5G. And in the course went the most severe means of opposing international sanctions and prohibitions, in particular, the confrontation between the US and Chinese tech giant Huawei. And not surprising, because the 5G connection promises a breakthrough in speed connection for mobile communications, opens the way to a brighter future incredible technology, although it requires significantly more resources and equipment than any previous generation. And walk this road with Chinese equipment or American.
The generous Chinese offer the installation of 5G communication systems almost for free, than rushed to take advantage of Russia and Belarus. At the same time, Western countries are wary of the prospects of the admission of the grasping hands of the Chinese in their networks. And some, like the US, Canada, the UK and Poland generally prohibit the activities of Huawei in its territory. In any case, the 5G looks like an inevitable future, but Ukraine and the rest of the world will have to decide which way to get to it.
Lesson 2. Space is getting closer. And all the more attractive for business
New technology off the space to compete not only in the communications market, but also in “higher” areas in the truest sense of the word. In 2019, it became impossible to contradict, that the world began a new “space race”. And, unlike the confrontation between the USA and the USSR at the dawn of the space age, is very important, if not primary, role played by private initiatives. And it’s not just about the famous visionary Ilona Max, whose most high-profile success of 2019 was the launch of the first batch of satellites system global access to the Internet “Starlink”. Also in the initiatives of space exploration, in particular, the preparation of new missions to the moon, joined by the richest inhabitant of our planet Jeff Bezos with its “Amazon.” Along the Western billionaires and space Agency will face China, which is also actively promoted in the interplanetary emptiness, and one of the biggest breakthroughs in 2019 became the landing apparatus on the dark side of the moon.
However, space exploration in 2019 have acquired not only peace initiatives. One of the main trends was the militarization of the space industry, which align all developed countries. Could not resist even the US, which by the end of the year announced the creation of the Space forces. So peaceful and not so means space the future of humanity is getting closer.
SpaceX Falcon 9 lifts off from air force station Cape Canaveral. On Board the rocket 60 satellites Starlink
Lesson 3. Nothing lasts forever, especially restrictions on the development of ballistic missiles
The world is gradually losing influence contracts and constraints of the Cold war and its ending. In 2019 the final collapse of the failed Treaty on the limitation of intermediate-range missiles, signed between the United States and the Soviet Union, which after the collapse of the Union pledged to abide by and its former republics (including Ukraine). The Americans and Russians blame each other for its collapse, but Russia even during the formally valid contract started designing a new “doomsday weapon” that could put NATO on his knees is a hypersonic missile. Although there are serious doubts that Putin personally presented the development of a – real and not just a mechanism to launder funds, the termination of the restriction missiles and medium-range opens a new stage in the global arms race.
And like the space race, today it will be much more participants than in the twentieth century. Even those not too technologically advanced country like Iran to develop missile weapons. And Ukraine, which is not constrained by the limitations of the Treaty, to find the answer to the question of whether to participate in the “missile arms race” as a full participant.
Lesson 4. On the “Iran issue” gathering clouds
Since the Islamic revolution in Iran in the late 1970s relations between Tehran and Washington was, to put it mildly, strained. And with the US withdrawal from the “nuclear deal” with Iran in 2018 do smell something fishy. Iran resumed work on nuclear and missile programs, through its proxy fighting in Syria and Yemen, and that Tehran blamed for attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and pipelines in Saudi Arabia. States in response announced the deployment of a 120-strong contingent in the Persian Gulf, and the world media started talking about the possibility of open war between the US and Iran.
Although the worst did not happen, any progress in patova confrontation is not observed. Moreover, Tehran has demonstrated not only an external determination, but also the internal stability of the regime is brutally suppressing protests in the fall. Thus, the “Iranian issue” only worsened and continues to be one of the biggest security challenges in the world.
Lesson 5. The Arab spring has returned
In 2011, the Middle East, a wave of revolutions, uprisings and coups, which almost destabilized the entire region, and some countries, like Libya and Syria are thrown into the maelstrom of civil wars still going on. In 2019, the region met for the second wave of the “Arab spring”. The protests spread to Lebanon, Iraq, Sudan, Algeria, Iraq, and even Iran. However, not everywhere all ended well – at the cost of thousands of lives, protests in Iran were suppressed, and in Iraq, still pouring blood. The middle East remains perhaps the most problematic place on the planet. The world was not ready for Arab spring-2019, and therefore in 2020 will have to exert effort to the second wave of regional political turmoil did not repeat the fate of the first.
Idlib, Syria, may 2019
Lesson 6. Revolutionary Latin America
Not just the Arab East rose revolutions in 2019. The wave of instability, populist electoral successes, failed attempts, coups and bloody protests swept Latin America. Although in each country the events developed differently: in Venezuela supported by the United States and not only the opposition leader Juan Guido failed to gain support among the security forces and to overthrow was a failure regime odious dictator Maduro, Bolivia and Chile, Protestants managed to achieve victories, and Brazil’s President-a populist began to “tighten the screws”.
The problems of the region are the same at all. Decades of economic development in Latin America gave way to years of decline and stagnation that seems to never end. And while the General direction of economic development will not change, social contradictions and the resulting riots and revolutions will continue. 2019 could not bring fundamental changes, and therefore all problems will be finished in 2020.
Lesson 7. White terrorism
In 2011, Anders Breivik attacks in a quiet-peaceful Norway have shown the world that “white terrorism” is a reality. And 2019 shows that the Breivik case is still alive. March 15, not less than quiet and peaceful New Zealand were shot by visitors to the two mosques in the town of Brichester. Brenton Tarrant, who was the perpetrator of the crime, directly imitated and appealed to the “feat” of Breivik and justified their actions with similar ideas – a fight against “multiculturalism” and “Islamic” invasion. A few months American Patrick Crusius shot 26 the visitors of the shopping center in El Paso and also left on the Internet “right-wing” and “anti-immigrant” Manifesto. The tragedy of Brichester and El Paso suggest that Breivik was not a phenomenon, but only the first swallow engendered by multiculturalism and migration, “white terrorism”. And the world should learn to resist this kind of terrorism.
Lesson 8. The aggressor can understand and forgive right in front of his victims
Due to the aggression against Ukraine in 2014 Russia was deprived of the membership in the parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. But several years passed, and in the pockets of the PACE has become empty without the regular Russian contributions. Therefore, despite the fact that Russian troops did not disappear from the Ukrainian Crimea and Donbass, and daily continues to kill our citizens at the end of June 2019, the representatives of the Kremlin, promising to pre-pay all missed contributions back into the leading European authority. As they say, war is war, and the payment schedule.
The Europeans demonstrated to the Ukraine and to the world that uphold the principles of the international order and States ‘ rights to security and sovereignty of the good for returns and “concerned” statements, but I can not be an obstacle to financial Affairs. Unfortunately, the “reconciliation” between Russia and Europe began without the restoration of peace and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian delegation to PACE does not have the strength and means to stop this process. To be able to effectively protect national sovereignty on the international stage, Ukraine needs to learn this sad lesson 2019, and further to fight back the creeping Russian offensive on all fronts.
Ukrainian activist protests against the return of the Russian Federation in PACE
Lesson 9. European integration may well give back
In 2019 not only Ukraine received bad news from the European institutions. This year, it became apparent that the process of European integration in the Balkans began to slip, if not stopped. For the sake of the prospects of EU membership of the Balkan States to the heavy steps of Macedonia in General had a referendum to change the name of the state – but in response, the EU began to delay the process and try to remove the question of the Balkans from the agenda. Such actions have already started to push Serbia in a friendly embrace of Russia, which are already heavily climbed in the internal Affairs of States in the Balkans.
And Ukraine should look closely as to the problems and vicissitudes of European integration of the Balkan States, and destructive of the efforts of Russia in the region. Because all of these processes and events will have a direct impact on our Euro-Atlantic future.
Lesson 10. To get out of the EU even harder than to get there
The Saga with the exit of Britain from the European Union, which began in 2016, has already ruined the career of one British Prime Minister and cast a shadow on the future territorial integrity of the United Kingdom. In 2019 the long-suffering British Parliament had to go to the polls because of the inability to accept at least some agreement with the EU. Indignant and self-centered behavior of London’s political elite, Scots, Irish and even still, quiet and peaceful Welsh all more vocal about their right to self-determination in the context of Breccia.
In the end, only in December the agreement of Boris Johnson, which is partially rewritten agreement Theresa may, has given the go-ahead. The year 2020 will show how all Brakcet. But the whole world is no doubt much easier to vote for secession from the EU than actually to leave.
Lesson 11. Do not neglect the rules of fire safety
Forest fires in Siberia, Amazonia, and not only became a serious blow to “the green lungs of the planet” in 2019. Millions of hectares of greenery, along with all the forest-dwellers, was reduced to ashes, and human effort was not enough to stop the element. Moreover, when Brazil raised the matter of salvation of the Amazon on a global level, the Moscow fires in Siberia tried to ignore until the last, until the problem has reached catastrophic proportions. In the end, the year our planet has lost more than 7 million hectares of forests. And the consequences of these disasters we have to deal for many more years.
However, not only forests became victims of fire. In April, the whole world watched in horror how the burned architectural masterpiece – the famous Paris Notre Dame Cathedral. Negligently Paris almost lost one of his most famous calling cards. This fire, together with forest disasters have shown that it does not matter – you live in troubled Brazil, Putin’s Russia or prosperous France. To fire safety should be taken very seriously.
The fire in the Cathedral of Notre Dame
Lesson 12. Don’t want to anger the Swedish eco-activists
She Turnberg, schoolgirl and champion environmental problems from Sweden quickly became a world celebrity after his speech in the UN General Assembly this autumn. While around the person the most Greta, its principles and some theatrical feud with Donald trump is still going active discussions, its main task eco-activist has obviously failed.
The problems of environmental pollution, nature conservation, and in General to save our planet from environmental disaster attracted attention and became a topic of discussion at all levels from the international to the comments in social networks. And regardless of whether Greta ideological fighter, or just promoted a public relations image, environmental issues, thanks to media stories involving Turnberg received at least part of the attention you deserve.
Lesson 13. Gas as a tool of “big politics”
Despite all the calls I Turnberg and fighters against pollution, no one can move from the top of Olympus energy fossil fuels – oil and gas, which remain very important elements of European policy. In particular, almost all 2019 the fate of an ambitious project of Russian gas pipeline “Nord stream-2” , as well as the future of Russian gas transit through Ukrainian pipes. And if to reach some agreements with the Europeans and the Ukrainians, the Russians failed, the States haven’t said their last word.
The US is not going to take the European gas market to the Russians without a fight, and actively promoting its liquefied natural gas, and “Nord stream-2” hell’s imposed sanctions. And the main result of all this gas fight – pretty simple. Despite all the prospects of “green energy”, natural gas will still be one of the main energy resources in Europe. But Russian or American – is an open question.
Lesson 14. National independence capable to withstand even the mighty China
The protests of Hong Kong people against the law on extradition of convicts to mainland China remained one of the top topics of the world media throughout 2019. And suffering law was merely a pretext, and, in General, Hong Kongers oppose the imposition of Chinese political agenda of his democratic city. Even when the law was officially repealed, the protests are not simply faded, and were put forward new requirements – and the protests themselves has grown with new strength. And for almost a year, China used force to suppress any resistance to its political system, marking in front of the gate of the Hong Kong Maidan. And this is a great testimony to the fact that an example that showed the Ukrainian revolution of Dignity in 2013-2014, still remains relevant. Popular protest in Hong Kong is opposed by all the power of authoritarian China. And who knows, will not go there in 2020, “democratic offensive” in mainland China.
Demonstrators listen to the national anthem USA
Lesson 15. For stealing technology in the United States can greatly “to give hand”
China has long been known for his excessive “love” to shamelessly copying foreign technology. But in 2019 for this “love” has taken US. At the initiative of President Donald trump the Americans are a trade war with China. And the American attack hit the Chinese corporate giant Huawei. On charges of industrial espionage Huawei spring 2019 fall under a complete ban in the United States, lost access to Google services, the supply of chips from Intel and Qualcomm.
The US is not alone in the move against the Chinese techno-giant – sanctions supported by many of the allies, in particular Britain, Canada and Poland. And to all who still decided to continue to use Chinese communications equipment the Americans gave a warning – all information passed through this equipment, could fall to the Chinese. But American warnings are just reservations, and the answer to the question whether the cheapness and attractiveness of Chinese brands described by the States of risks, each country will seek its own way.
Lesson 16. In the “NATO” the family is not without Erdogan
The collective West in 2019 there were problems not only around the European Union. The Euro-Atlantic military Alliance of NATO, this year celebrating its 70th anniversary, is also faced with a serious challenge. Turkey has become problematic member of the Alliance because of its independent policies and the idea of becoming a regional superpower aggression in Syria and “mutok” with the Russians.
It got to the point that military allies of Turkey began to apply sanctions against it, and in response, Ankara declared its intention to block the adoption of NATO plans for the defense from Russian aggression. The rift between NATO and Turkey have all chances to turn into a chasm that would jeopardize as the future of NATO and security in Eastern Europe and the Black sea. To avoid this, Ankara, Washington and Brussels will have to consider the experience of 2019 and work hard on the problem, not exacerbate it.
Lesson 17. The US also can deliver
In many ways, the split between NATO and Turkey due to Turkish military operations in Northern Syria. The main purpose of this operation is Kurdish autonomy, produced the long-suffering people in the war against ISIL and troops of Syrian dictator Assad. In this struggle the Kurds have become allies of the Americans, and the American military on the Syrian-Turkish border defended by Kurdish aggression Erdogan. However, the US President Donald trump, in pursuit of his obsessive desire to immediately withdraw from Syria, simply abandoned the Kurds to their fate. And defended its decision by the arguments that the Kurds are not helped the Americans during the Normandy landings in 1944, and therefore do not qualify for help now.
The Kurds are protesting against the deployment of Turkish troops to Syria, Rome, Italy
As a consequence, left alone with one of the strongest armies in the region, the Kurds were forced to make a deal with Assad and his Russian friends, losing their autonomy. The belief in the firmness of American guarantees and principles have suffered a serious blow, while the Russians supported the Assad dictatorship only strengthened their positions. And although the whole world did some of his insights with a step of Donald trump, the most important lesson this situation must be for America itself. After all, if you throw allies right and left, very soon you can be alone.
Lesson 18. Doping sporting success can get out sideways, even if you’re “big and scary” Russia
The success on the field of achievements in the sport in recent years, which is so like to be proud of the authoritarian country, the example of Putin’s Russia turned out to be fake. Not Russian spirit, not training and no will to fight, and pumped doping was provided by the “victory” of Russian sport. And no fraud on the level of the highest state institutions did not help to hide it. At the end of the 2019 World anti-doping Agency banned the Russian participation in all major sports for 4 years. Only one Olympics, the Russians will have to miss two (and this will be the third consecutive Olympics with “itemname”). However, if officials from Russia was forbidden to even pry on the stadium, for athletes who were not involved in doping schemes, an exception was made, and individually and under a neutral flag, they will be able to participate in competitions (like two years ago in the Republic of Korea).
That’s a fake sport greatness of Russia was irreparable blow, and the whole world got a clear confirmation of the fact that in the international arena should be a place only a fair fight
Lesson 19. Trump and the impeachment – the first series
Perhaps the most resonant political event of the year on both sides of the Atlantic ocean was initiated by the House of Representatives of Congress, the impeachment of President Donald trump. As the epicentre of the scandal was the Ukraine, about this odious process and all its twists and turns were written off not one ton of paper. Therefore remember to detail the whole sequence of events makes no sense. Moreover, the process is not yet complete, and nominated by the House of representatives charges are in the Senate. However, no one in the expert environment there is no doubt that the Senate will not support the accusations of the Congress and the office of President will be for Donald trump. At least until elections in the fall of 2020.
However, many of the conclusions of this story will have to do it, and Trump, and Congress, and, most importantly, the Ukrainian authorities. And for Ukraine the main conclusion – no political benefits from establishing contact with the President of the United States “informal” channels are not worth the risk of losing bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.