Who will be the President – I do not know even sociologists

Кто станет президентом - не знают даже социологи

In Ukraine new leader in the polls – Vladimir Zelensky. Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko was behind and I bet one of them will fight with Zelensky in the second round.

The head of the sociological service of KIIS Volodymyr Paniotto says that the country will go to the polls for the first time, when the data of exit polls will not show favorites. “A unique situation, this has not happened”, – stressed the sociologist. And encourages everyone to relax: who would become President, is unknown. And the polls will not answer. So what happened, what all these figures mean, and how it ends – briefly explains LIGA.net.

What happened. These KIIS, Socis and the Razumkov Centre: if the first round of presidential elections was held in late January, the second round just went to the head quarter 95 Vladimir Zelensky (23%). Next – Petro Poroshenko (16.4 per cent) and Yulia Tymoshenko (15.7 per cent).

But according to the survey group Rating, the order is somewhat different: Zelensky – 19%, followed by Tymoshenko (18.2%) and Poroshenko (15,1%). While both surveys show roughly equal ratings to three candidates: Yuriy Boyko – 9-10%, Anatoly Gritsenko 8-8,5% and Oleh Lyashko 6-7%. Andriy Sadovy, Eugene Moore and Alexander Shevchenko are two polls around 3%.

What does it mean. The leader of the race two months before voting began Zelensky. Sociologists group Rating believe that this is due to activation of voters aged 18-35. Paniotto believes that assists in the support of 1+1 channel. Analyst Peter Oleshchuk says: the nomination Zelensky influenced the growth rankings, mobilizing protest, the indifferent and the undecided electorate. “The discrediting of competitors also strengthened its position,” says oleschuk. On hand Zelensky and the lack of the rating.

Another conclusion from the figures is the current President Poroshenko equal in ranking with Tymoshenko. At least – in the survey, KIIS, Socis and the Razumkov. But the difference is within the error. 16.4% and 15.7% in the same numbers, said Paniotto of KIIS. His center participated in the survey, but results published the journal of the observations of the sociologist did not take into account: variability of the errors should increase to 1.3%, then the difference between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko was within the margin of error.

In the survey of the Rating of Tymoshenko Poroshenko is ahead by 3.1% with an error of 1.3%. According to sociologist Irene bekeshkinoy, the gap between the first three candidates in this poll was insignificant. The difference in numbers between the surveys, it explains the number of respondents and the peculiarities of each service. “Rating polled 6 thousand people, three center – 11 thousand, but each service were interviewed by 3.3 thousand. Is more accurate is impossible,” says Bekeshkina.

What will happen next. Sociologists can’t tell you who in the end will come in the second round, explains Paniotto. He believes that in the two months before election day, the situation may seriously change. “We should not accept the ratings as a result of the election,” urges sociologist. As for Zelensky, in the words of Oleshhuk to maintain the rating of the candidate will have to work to convince voters of the seriousness of intent and to repel the attacks of opponents.

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